UPDATE - Tuesday Morning Weather

Tuesday, September 18th 2007, 3:56 am
By: News On 6

Update 12:40 PM:
Alan's current forecast is on track. We're watching a couple of showers making their way into the Stillwater area. Most of the heavier rainfall is west of I-35, but we can't rule out an isolated t-storm in the western part of Green Country. Nothing severe is expected this afternoon.

From 9:08 AM:
Activity is located across the western half of OK this morning with additional showers and storms likely to develop around midday or so. Most of this activity will remain just west of our immediate area, but there will be a slight chance in Tulsa today and tonight for some storms. Daytime highs will remain warm for the next several days as fall arrives early Sunday morning with no major air mass change expected.

Katie will be in the office later today. I’ll take a look at incoming 12z data and post updates later this morning if needed.

Alan Crone

From 3:56 AM:
Good Morning!

An area of rain and storm activity is located across Central Kansas to Northwestern OK this morning in response to an upper level trough lifting over the area. This activity is lifting northeast and will weaken this morning as the energy associated with the lifting outruns the area in conjunction with a surface boundary-dry line feature to the west that extends southward from a surface low in northeastern Colorado. Additional forcing should arrive midday or slightly earlier allowing for more showers and storms to form across Northwestern OK and Kansas. This activity will be closer to Northeastern OK later today but more than likely just a hair west of the immediate area. I’ll keep only a slight mention of activity for most of the day, but later tonight into Wednesday we’ll increase that mention to the current 30% coverage. A few strong to severe storms will be possible across central Kansas down to the border with better dynamics expected northward.

BuFkit profiles indicate mid level drying behind the departing wave Thursday into Saturday and our current forecast is on track with highs back into the lower 90s Thursday, Friday, and the weekend.

GFS-NAM data offer slightly different solutions regarding the weekend and beyond, but really aren’t too far off from one other regarding placement of specific features. Both models create a closed low across the Gulf this weekend and bring the system closer to the vicinity in the extended periods. While the NAM domain doesn’t include the time period of early next week yet, the GFS continues to indicate this system moving into the East TX and ArkLaTex regions Monday bringing an increase in moisture and precip to our eastern areas Monday night into Tuesday.

Alan Crone