A Few Storms Possible

After a few days of sunshine and relatively dry conditions, a chance of showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the next few days. Temperatures should remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s

Friday, July 20th 2007, 3:43 am

By: News On 6

After a few days of sunshine and relatively dry conditions, a chance of showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the next few days. Temperatures should remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend.

This morning a weak cold front is located to our north and has currently stalled from Northern Kansas into South-central Missouri. An weak outflow boundary may be located roughly from eastern Kansas to around Wichita . A small surface low is located near the OK Panhandle into southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile to our south a mid level low is located across West Texas with some pretty good low level moisture located just south of the Red River.

Some model data continues to suggest our front to the north should enter Northeastern OK around midday and slowly move southward later tonight. Iâ€™m not totally convinced of this solution. Itâ€™s very rare a front will move past Northern OK this time of the year and survive down into the Red River Valley. But as you well know, this summer has been a little unusual. The weak outflow to the north may have a better chance of entering the area and this would basically be a wind shift line at best. In fact, Iâ€™ll probably keep our winds from the southeast all day unless or until I start to see a wind shift getting closer to the southern Kansas vicinity.

Bottom line: Weâ€™ll keep our probabilities for scattered storms today around 40% and that might be too high. A few will be possible this morning across far northern OK around Ponca City, but the best timing would be after noon into the mid day period coinciding with peak daytime heating. Wind shear will be pretty weak, but an isolated strong to severe storm may be possible.

I donâ€™t change much to our weekend forecast from previous days and will keep a slight mention of storms Saturday and a mention of an isolated storm Sunday and Monday.

The remainder of the time period from Tuesday through late next week should be centered on warm and humid conditions with an isolated storm in the afternoons. A typical summertime pattern. Finally!

The extended model data suggests we may see some activity in the Gulf region moving into southern Texas late next week. No doubt the low level moisture flow will keep the humidity pretty stiff next week and temperature heat index values may climb quite a bit.

Have a great day and enjoy the weather!

Alan Crone
KOTV