Morning Weather Briefing

Wednesday, July 11th 2007, 3:51 am
By: News On 6

An interesting forecast to say the least. We’ve had some brief showers this morning in the Tulsa area, but they didn’t amount to much.

Looks like Wednesday should be fine with a mixture of sun and clouds throughout the day. A northeast wind will advect or help to bring in some slightly drier air across northeastern OK. We do see showers and storms to our west this morning but this activity should remain west or southwest or our area.

Our upper air flow remains from the northwest and this always remains a challenge in trying to peg the exact “when and where” regarding thunderstorms.

The GFS is attempting to bring down another MCS or mesoscale convective system of storms overnight into Thursday morning across Kansas and Northern OK. The last few runs have trended a little further north and the WRF-NAM is not quite as bullish on this solution. I will keep a mention of thunderstorms possible for the early morning time period of Thursday for Northern OK and southern Kansas.

The Thursday afternoon and evening time period may be influenced by two separate rounds of storms, the later occurring overnight into Friday morning. Severe weather is a possibility during this time period as deep layer shear or winds changing speed and or direction with height will be increasing. Regardless by Friday midday, a strong cold front for July should sweep south of our area taking the rain and storms to the south and bringing in relatively dry air. Usually I would not buy into a model solution of a frontal passage like this in middle July, but the upper air flow will be pretty stout from the northwest and should drive the boundary southward.

The weekend appears to be nice, but some returning moisture may result in a few showers or storms for southern or extreme eastern OK over the weekend.

By early next week additional showers or storms may be possible across part of the area with highs near normal.

I may update this discussion around 10am, so check back for new information.
You can always drop me an email.
Alan Crone