How would Saddam fight back? Iraqi leader could try to draw Americans into cities, broaden war

Monday, October 7th 2002, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -_ If a U.S. attack against Iraq sparks popular revolts, elite troops would likely join, and the cornered Saddam Hussein would try to draw American troops into urban fighting with his loyalists, exiled commanders who once fought under him say.

Saddam's leadership has made clear to the Iraqi people it expects them to resist any U.S. attack. That message _ conveyed by the official media and in street rallies _ even appears in a novel whose anonymous author is thought to be Saddam.

At one point, the hero of the novel ``The Fortified Citadel'' says the people must be prepared to ``sacrifice themselves'' against the enemy and that the army should ``fight amid its people.''

As Washington threatens an attack to oust Saddam for his weapons programs, U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, have made clear they hope the Iraqi people will rise up against their leader and that his soldiers will disobey orders to fight.

Some former Iraqi commanders, now in exile, say they expect that even the elite Republican Guard would join a popular revolt if Saddam appears doomed.

``These are human beings after all, they will surely abandon Saddam's ship when they see it sinking,'' retired Brig. Najib Al Salehi told The Associated Press by telephone from the United States, where he lives. Al Salehi was chief of staff of an Iraqi armored division in Kuwait during the Gulf War.

In 1991, Shiite Muslims in the south and Kurds in the north rose up against Saddam after the Gulf War, but Saddam's troops didn't join, perhaps because they didn't believe America would go so far as to depose Saddam. The revolts were crushed.

Al Salehi and other former commanders and experts said Saddam's army could not match the U.S. military.

Al Salehi said he expects Saddam's strategy to focus on defending _ and trying to draw the Americans into _ key cities, especially Baghdad, the capital, and Saddam's hometown, Tikrit.

Saddam ``is sure that the Americans will not enter major cities, therefore he will try to lure them into exactly that situation and then engage them in street fighting,'' Al Salehi said.

But urban warfare in Baghdad would also be risky for Saddam, says Ismail Zayer, an Iraqi journalist who covers the Iraqi army for the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper. Without proper command the regular army will collapse while other major cities will fall to rebels, Zayer said.

Some senior officers are going into the Kurdish-controlled north offering to participate in any revolt once the U.S. strike begins, Zayer said. He said some top government officials are asking Shiite tribal leaders to shelter their families when the war starts.

The Iraqi leader has placed relatives in key fighting positions, hoping their loyalty will ensure his survival.

His eldest son, Odai, is the commander of Saddam's Fedayeen, a paramilitary force. Another son, Qusai, is in charge of tens of thousands of Republican Guards. Saddam's cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, notorious for ordering the gassing of Kurds in 1988, is the military chief assigned to the southern provinces.

Saddam, who promoted himself to field marshal when he took power in 1979, is also the commander in chief of the armed forces and is expected to assume direct command of the army as he did during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war and the Gulf War.

``Saddam is not a professional army officer and he cannot match the top U.S. generals who will face him in the battlefield,'' Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji, Saddam's chief of staff when he invaded Kuwait, said by telephone from exile in Denmark.

Saddam does have military expertise to rely on. His defense minister, Gen. Sultan Hashim Ahmed, and state minister for military affairs, Gen. Abdel Jabar Shanshal, are both war veterans.

Expertise is not enough, said Al Salehi, the armored division commander.

"His army is so weak and demoralized that it cannot withstand any American assault," he said.

Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan has hinted Iraq might try to broaden the war beyond the region to knock the Americans off balance and rally Arab support.

If Iraq is attacked, ``An enemy is an enemy ... any American, British or Zionist interest on Arab land or within the reach of Arabs, wherever they are, I consider legitimate'' targets, Ramadan told Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. television from Baghdad.

During the Gulf War, Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israeli cities, but Israel didn't retaliate, to the relief of Washington, which feared Israeli involvement would split the anti-Saddam coalition.

This time, Israel has said it will retaliate if an Iraqi attack causes Israeli casualties or uses non-conventional weapons.

Israel has deployed new Arrow anti-missile defenses that it says would be able to knock down 90 percent of whatever Baghdad fires at it. Israel has also begun innoculating emergency and security personnel in case of chemical or biological attack - and says it can quickly vaccinate its entire population.