It paid to raise cash in state legislative races

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) _ The ability to raise money translated into success for the majority of men and women who sought legislative seats in Oklahoma this year. <br><br>A statistical analysis by The Daily

Sunday, November 26th 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) _ The ability to raise money translated into success for the majority of men and women who sought legislative seats in Oklahoma this year.

A statistical analysis by The Daily Oklahoman shows that on average, winners of the Nov. 7 elections received more than 70 percent of the money raised in their races. Losers, on the other hand, received on average less than 29 percent.

The analysis found that four factors combined to explain almost 90 percent of the difference in vote tallies among state House and Senate candidates _ contributions, party voter registration, incumbency and the coattails of presidential candidates.

Gary Copeland, political science professor at the University of Oklahoma, said money may be even more important to legislative races than to presidential races that receive continuous news coverage.

Communications from legislative candidates in the form of mailings, radio ads or even in-person visits often are the only information voters have.

``That makes money very critical to these races,'' Copeland said.

But having the most money didn't guarantee victory. State Sen. Ben Brown, D-Oklahoma City, was the incumbent in a district where 53 percent of active voters were Democrats. He also received 76 percent of the money raised in the race.

But he was defeated by Republican challenger Jim Reynolds, who estimates he knocked on 12,000 doors between July 1 and Election Day.

Reynolds said he was told before the election that polling suggested Brown's votes on key issues might make him vulnerable. He spread that message through a mailer and in his door-to-door meetings, and wound up winning with 51.5 percent of the vote.

The Oklahoman found that, on average, a strong base is important. A 10 percent point advantage in voter registration in a candidate's district translated into a 6.1 percent point advantage in votes.

The analysis also found that being an incumbent added an average of 6.5 percentage points to a candidate's vote tally, and that a gain of 10 percentage points in a candidate's share of the money raised in a campaign meant a 2.7 percent point advantage.

For its analysis, The Oklahoman used a statistical technique called linear regression to create a mathematical model that predicted election outcomes based on the four factors.

Instead of simple contribution amounts, the analysis used candidates' share of the total money raised in each district. This accounts for the fact that raising $30,000 would be an advantage in a district where the total raised by all candidates was $40,000, but not in a race where the total raised was $400,000.