Oklahoma Could Lose $14,198,000 In Federal Funds If Census Is Undercounted

Thursday, March 9th 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

WASHINGTON -- In a study released today, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, one of the nation's leading professional services firms, has determined that economic harm to states, counties, and metropolitan areas could occur over the next 10 years if Americans fail to fill out and return their Census 2000 questionnaires.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers, at the request of the Presidential members of the U.S. Census Monitoring Board, conducted the first comprehensive analysis of how the upcoming census could affect the allocation of Federal funds among the states, metropolitan areas, and center counties of metropolitan areas during the period covered by Census 2000, fiscal years 2002-2012.

The study found that a population "undercount" similar to that which occurred in 1990 would cost 26 states a minimum of $9.1 billion.

States with the largest numerical undercounts would be hit the hardest. California would lose more than $5 billion, Texas nearly $2 billion, and Florida $500 million.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers estimates a net funding loss for Oklahoma from 2002-2012 of $14,198,000.

The study is based on a projected undercount of 62,836 people in Oklahoma, of whom 35,891 are children.

"This study confirms that a 2000 undercount would result in Federal funds being sent to places where the need is not the greatest," said Gilbert F. Casellas, Presidential Co-Chair of the Monitoring Board. "The people of Oklahoma need to know that the fair return of tax dollars to their communities depends on everyone mailing back their census forms."

Dr. Peter Merrill, head of Pricewaterhouse Coopers' NationalEconomic Consulting group, said the actual funding losses could be significantly higher than projected because data were not available to analyze all of the affected Federal programs or any of the state programs distributed based on census data.

"Our projected funding distortions should be treated as conservative," he said. In conducting its analysis, Pricewaterhouse Coopers applied the 1990 demographic undercount rates to the latest population estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau in order to estimate the 2000 undercount rates.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers then calculated the projected funding levels for approximately 82 per cent of the largest population-based Federal programs, using the FY 2000 Current Services Budget as a baseline.

The complete Pricewaterhouse Coopers report, including specific results by program and year for every area of geography measured can be accessed via the web at www.cmbp.gov or www.pwcglobal.com.

Mr. Casellas and the other Presidential members of the Monitoring Board - California Lt. Governor Cruz M. Bustamante, Dr.Everett M. Ehrlich, former Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic and Business Affairs, and Lorraine A. Green, former Deputy Directorof the Office of Personnel Management - stressed that the Census Bureau is committed to counting every person in the country.

"The 2000 census plan is the largest and most sophisticated peacetime mobilization in American history," said Ms. Green. "Hopefully, the results of this study will persuade more Americans to participate in the census."

Indeed, a recent national poll sponsored by the Monitoring Board found that Americans who are undecided about participating became much more motivated to do so after learning that the census determines where Federal dollars get spent.

Dr. Ehrlich pointed out that the Pricewaterhouse Coopers studyshows that the Census Bureau's planned Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) survey is "an essential insurance policy" in the event of an undercount.

The ACE program is an extensive scientific analysis that will measure the accuracy of the actual enumeration, including which areas and demographic groups have been undercounted and to what degree.

The Bureau's use of such modern statistical methods has been endorsed by the National Academy of Sciences and other nonpartisan experts, but certain political interests remain opposed to correcting a census undercount.

Yet, as Dr. Ehrlich said,"Pricewaterhouse Coopers has observed that an incomplete or uncorrected census would result in fewer services for families and communities in need."

Lt. Governor Bustamante added, "The people of Oklahoma and all the other affected areas will demand that these unjust funding shortfalls be corrected if the undercount occurs."

Approximately $185 billion in Federal funds are allocated each year based on each state's respective share of the U.S. population, as determined every 10 years by the census. The Pricewaterhouse Coopers study examined the same 15 programs analyzed by the General Accounting Office in its 1999 report on the funding impact of the 1990 census undercount.

The eight programs most affected by the census are Medicaid, Foster Care, Rehabilitation Services Basic Support, Social Services Block Grants, Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grants, Adoption Assistance, Child Care and Development Block Grants, and Vocational Education Block Grants.

In Oklahoma, the loss of Federal funds for affected counties projected by Pricewaterhouse Coopers is as follows:



 County..............Central City in County........Federal
 ....................(in whole or part)............Funding
 ..................................................Effect
 Canadian Co......Oklahoma City (part).............1,725
 Cleveland Co.....Oklahoma City (part), Norman....-4,169
 Comanche Co......Lawton..........................-2,253
 Garfield Co......Enid...............................767
 McClain Co.......Oklahoma City (part)...............412
 Oklahoma Co......Oklahoma City (part)...........-21,731
 Osage Co.........Tulsa (part)....................-4,010
 Pottawatomie Co..Oklahoma City (part), Shawnee....1,218
 Rogers Co........Tulsa (part).....................2,253
 Tulsa Co.........Tulsa (part)....................-6,615