McCain nears end: Don't shed tears over an illusion

I thought: Let them savor their moment in the sun; darkness will envelop this campaign soon enough. <br><br>John McCain's local supporters celebrated his Rhode Island victory last night in Warwick's

Thursday, March 9th 2000, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

I thought: Let them savor their moment in the sun; darkness will envelop this campaign soon enough.

John McCain's local supporters celebrated his Rhode Island victory last night in Warwick's Boston Billiard Club. But he needed to run the table and rack up big numbers of delegates in large states to have a realistic chance to wrest the Republican nomination from Texas Gov. George W. Bush, and it wasn't happening.

I was happy for the McCain folks, especially state Rep. Bob Watson, his chairman here, who told me just before the polls closed, ``I've been more nervous today than any time I've been on the ballot.'' Minutes later, with TV calling McCain the winner, Watson was ``very excited.''

And he was not ready to acknowledge the starker reality beyond New England, that by night's end, or surely by next Tuesday night, McCain would be knocked out of the race. ``No, I don't know that,'' Watson said.

He and other McCain fans here tied themselves to a fiery comet that soared across the political firmament, illuminating the electoral landscape. And even now, as McCain seemed to be flaming out -- for example, losing Ohio -- and, certainly, facing still bleaker terrain in next week's primaries, at least his Rhode Island backers could take some satisfaction: They had brought the one-time long-shot to victory in the state, even though Bush was the choice of Governor Almond and other GOP bigwigs.

For that matter, the governors of Massachusetts and Connecticut also unsuccessfully backed Bush.

Many Rhode Islanders and other Americans will be disappointed at the thought that Bush will be the nominee. They deemed McCain a breath of fresh air, a straight-talking populist who would ignite revolutionary change, a welcome and inspiring departure from right-wing Republicanism. Indeed, in much of New England, people came to regard him as one of our own -- a moderate.

Forget most of that.

He is not a moderate. He is outspoken, but he also has pronounced deficits. The best thing about McCain is his war hero life story. The next best thing is his championing campaign finance reform. The third best thing is his accessibility and breeziness and his willingness to take some bold steps, such as denouncing leaders of the kooky religious right.

Yet, Mr. Straight Talk at first denied, and only belatedly acknowleged, links to calls attempting to undercut Bush among Catholics.

And one day McCain stepped up his attacks on the religious right leaders, saying their influence was evil, then backed down and apologized and came out looking erratic.

He is, by almost any standard index, conservative: against abortion rights, against meaningful gun control, and against gays openly serving in the military. Did you ever hear him stress a health-care plan or a sweeping education proposal?

And where was his candor when both he and Bush spinelessly refused to call for removing the Confederate flag from the capitol of South Carolina?

Newsweek's Anna Quindlen deftly compared McCain to the Wizard of Oz, an ordinary man hiding behind pyrotechnics. She said moderates assumed McCain would move toward the center if elected:

``This is not unlike the scenario in which a woman believes a man will change once married. Who McCain is, and who he will be, is amply detailed in his legislative record; this, more than his time at the Hanoi Hilton or his campaign bravado, would indicate how he would behave as president. Many voters, uninspired by his opponents, have extrapolated war heroism and a sharp tongue into something more, into leadership and a willingness to attack the status quo. But behind the curtain of the campaign is the real man. Pay attention.''

Sadly for the Republican Party and the country, McCain's campaign has not done much to make Bush into a better general election candidate. It may have given Bush a better slogan or two -- A Reformer with Results -- and forced him to shed some of his remoteness and plunge more into crowds. But the shrill primary in South Carolina, with its disastrous visit to Bob Jones University, saw Bush lurch more and more to the right, strengthening his bid for the nomination but isolating him from the American mainstream.

It remains an open question whether Bush has the intellectual capacity, the experience or the personality to be president. His grasp of issues -- his basic line of chatter -- still seems thin.

Democrat Al Gore has his share of liabilities, notably 1996 campaign finance scandals and the stale down side of Bill Clinton's presidency. But the economy is strong, and Bill Bradley's candidacy forced Gore to organize better and campaign better.

In coming months, as Bush and Gore battle and you no doubt tire of both of them, you may look back wistfully and think, ``If only McCain were still running; he'd be the answer to our prayers.''

Don't do that to yourself.

M. Charles Bakst, The Journal's political columnist, can be reached by E-mail at mbakst@projo.com