Active Weather Pattern Remains For Northeastern Oklahoma

Most of today should be fine with light winds, a cloud-sun mix and highs in the upper 60s north and lower 70s south.  The front that crossed the area yesterday evening is positioned to our south and will slowly lift northeast through later tonight into early Wednesday morning.  This will occur as another disturbance moves down the Rockies helping to develop low pressure along the boundary later tonight or early tomorrow morning to our west.  Along and north of the boundary, chances for storms will increase, including the potential for some strong to severe storms with hail and wind the main severe weather threats.  The current timing supports storm chances around 4am to 8am Wednesday and mostly from the metro eastward.  Southeastern Kansas will have a likely category through pre-dawn with a cluster of storms dropping down across northeastern OK early morning. These storms should vacate the premises quickly with most of Wednesday, after the morning hours, mostly dry and pleasant.  The front will again take a move south Wednesday before stalling and retreating northward once again early Thursday morning as yet another disturbance nears the state.  This may bring a few showers across the area sometime Thursday with the front taking another run at southern OK by the evening hours with another chance for storms.  A few of these storms Thursday may also be strong to severe with wind and hail the main threats. This brings us to Friday and the weekend.  And differences continue in the data this morning for this period. 

We know a stout looking storm system will be nearing the state during this period with increasing precipitation chances Friday and Saturday.  But the start and exit time of this system is highly varied for now in the data.  And some differences remain regarding some important synoptic features.  Here's my plan for this forecast update.  We'll keep a decent chance of showers Friday, but mostly to our west for most of the day.  By Friday evening, rain will be nearing the region as surface low tracks along or south of the Red River.  This should keep the front to our south for the Friday period and keep northeastern OK on the cool side of the system.  As the precipitation continues moving northeast by early Saturday morning, colder air will also filter southward into the state with north winds.  This will bring temps down into the 40s for Saturday morning with a chance of some rain and snow mix across southcentral or southeastern Kansas with a chilly rain located across most of NE OK for the morning to midday hours.  As this system exits by Saturday afternoon, north winds will remain into Sunday with partly sunny and cool conditions with afternoon highs possibly staying in the upper 40s, but I’ll keep these numbers into the lower 50s at this point for Saturday afternoon.   Sunday morning starts in the lower 40s with highs anywhere from the lower to mid-50s and probably dry for most of the day.  Later Sunday evening, a disturbance may be nearing with a few storms into Monday.  Next week also features another active pattern.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone