Sunshine Friday Before Rainy Sunday For Northeastern Oklahoma

A surface ridge of high pressure centered across northeastern OK bringing very cold and dry air across our area this morning, allowing temperatures dropping into the teens with light wind.  Sunny and chilly weather remains for the afternoon with highs rebounding into the mid or upper 40s along with light winds.  Today will look great but remain below average.  South winds return Saturday morning after morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 50s, possibly near 60 in a few spots before our next upper level system impacts the area Sunday into early Monday morning with rain and possibly some thunder for part of the area.  The track of the main upper level low has changed some in the data compared to previous days, but we continue to currently hold high chances for showers Sunday for at least the northern third of the state, with lower chances across southeastern sections for the daypart before increasing chances by evening.

The main upper level system is currently well west of the state, across the southwestern U.S., and will eject eastward during the next 48 hours while slowly weakening some.  As this low draws near the plains, a surface low pressure area will develop in response to evacuating mass along the Lee of the Rockies, with gusty south winds likely Sunday from 15 to 30 mph.  Low level moisture will be moved across the region Sunday morning with a few showers breaking out early in the morning across NE OK.  The surface low will more than likely track north of the area by Sunday night dragging a dryline type feature across the state from the west to east.  These features in spring would result in severe weather chances in warmer weather and higher moisture contents, but should only result in rain with some thunder in spots.  The surface instability across eastern OK will slowly be increasing Sunday evening, but should not support severe storms.  

One of the forecasting headaches with this type of pattern is the potential for a dry slot to develop separating moisture ( rain) from relatively drier air before the system clears the region.  We continue to keep higher chances across the northern sections of the region for the morning to midday but have accounted for some dry slotting across the south with lower chances until late Sunday night when some higher chances should arrive.

This system will exit the area Monday morning with a few showers or mix across NW Arkansas with Monday highs in the mid-50s.  Tuesday into Wednesday should feature more chilly weather with lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s.  Another system may drop down the northwest flow Tuesday into Wednesday with a small area of precipitation across southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK.  The temp profile would support some light snow showers by Tuesday evening, but no major impacts again would be expected. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Enjoy the sunshine and enjoy the weekend. 

Alan Crone