Warming Weather Brings Threat Of Strong, Severe Storms To Northeastern Oklahoma

Some pockets of mist or drizzle will remain near the region for the next few hours with light winds and low visibility.  Temps will slowly climb from the 50s this morning into the mid to upper 60s later this afternoon with a few sunbreaks.  A warming trend will commence for most of the week, but this will also bring active weather, including threats for strong to severe storms at times across the state.

The front that crossed the area a few days back will slowly lift northward later today in response to an incoming mid-level disturbance.  The result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, including the threat of a few strong to severe storms, mostly overnight.  All modes of severe weather will remain possible but the main threat in this pattern is usually large hail.  Unfortunately, the main period for severe storm development will once again be mostly late this evening into overnight, from about 1am tonight through 8am Tuesday morning.  We may be dealing with some capping or inversion issues for part of the time period, which may limit the coverage of storms.  Regardless, we’ll not make any changes to the current set of probabilities and this will remain at 60%. 

As the upper level system quickly ejects eastward early tomorrow morning, the front will once again move southward across the state, but instead of colder air, this system will not bring a different air mass into the state.  Our thermal and surface parameters will allow for warming daytime highs Tuesday through Thursday before the next stronger upper level system draws near the state and the front rapidly reforms to our north.  By Wednesday night into Thursday, strong southerly flow will quickly bring the moisture back into the state as pressure falls to our west.   The late week upper air system is much stronger compared to the first one we will track and could offer a slightly more complicated scenario for storms, including severe threats.

WARN RADAR

A cold front will move across extreme northern OK Thursday and stall as a lead wave from the main western trough ejects across the central pains. Strong parameters for severe weather will quickly be in place, but the coverage for storm activity may remain isolated or small. mostly across far northeastern Ok.  Even though the chances will remain low, any storms would be severe.  

This stationary boundary would remain in place Friday as the main upper system draws closer by Friday night and Saturday morning.   A new surface low may develop across northwestern OK Friday night and we may have another window for strong to severe storms through Saturday morning before this system rapidly exits the state by late Saturday morning.   As it looks now, most of the weekend will be precip free after early Saturday morning.

We'll be watching for storms later tonight into Tuesday morning, a small window Thursday night into Friday morning, and then again Friday night into Saturday morning.

Any of these periods could feature severe storms.   

It would be wonderful to have quiet and uneventful sunny weather during this period of uncertainty regarding COVID-19, but our weather pattern continues into spring even though we have seemingly been placed on hold with social distancing and staying at home.  Hang in there friends.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone