Strong To Severe Storms Move Into Green Country On Wednesday

We’re tracking a chance for strong to severe storms, including this morning and then again later this afternoon, as a powerful upper level storm system moves across the state.  A few storms moving out of west-central OK earlier this morning are now located across extreme southeastern OK producing hail and wind. The northern end of this batch brushed part of Pittsburg, Latimer and LeFlore county early this morning.  This activity will remain south of the I-40 corridor for the early morning hours.   But additional storms will develop through the early morning hours across northern OK and impact the Tulsa metro. Storms early this morning should remain slightly elevated, meaning the main threats will be hail and gusty wind along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across northern OK. 

Our friends at the National Weather Service will issue a flash flood watch for portions of northern OK, including the Tulsa metro, from 7am today through tonight.  Active weather will remain through the day with several rounds of showers and storms.  Additional watches, including tornado watches, are likely across part of the area later today.  Severe weather threats will remain with increasing chances for severe storms, including tornadoes across portions of central, southeastern and east-central OK.  These probabilities will extend basically along and south of I-40 and east of I-35.  Tornado threats may nudge northward later today, depending upon the exact track of a surface low pressure center that will move across part of the state today while a dry line and pacific cold front moves across the region this afternoon.  These features combined with increasing low-level moisture and more than adequate shear and helicity will aid in thunderstorm development.  Showers and storms should develop soon and populate part of northern OK this morning.  

As the late morning period approaches, stronger winds aloft will near the I-35 corridor with increasing chances for severe storms quickly developing along the southern end of I-35.  This could be as early as 10am.  A pocket of increasing surface instability, convective potential energy, and favorable wind profiles should allow for supercell development ahead of the advancing dry line trailing from the surface low as a warm front attempts to move northward.  Additional storms are likely to develop by midday to early afternoon as these features begin moving eastward.  The exact location of these parameters will lead to increasing tornado formation midday into this afternoon before the system exits southeastern OK late this evening.  Thursday should bring a nice break with pleasant conditions but our next chance for showers and storms will quickly arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning across northern OK and southern Kansas with a low severe weather threat.  The weekend currently appears fine despite a weak mid-level wave in the northwest flow aloft brushing the central plains.  Another system will near the state by the middle of next week.

WARN Radar

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings through the day and seek shelter if warnings are issued for your area.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Stay safe.

Alan Crone