The first part of our next storm system arrives this morning to mid-day with a few showers or rumbles of thunder, but this activity will remain well below severe levels. The main system pushes quickly through the area late tonight into pre-dawn Friday with cooler weather Friday into the weekend. A much cooler airmass remains across the state this weekend while the Midwest and east coasts experiences some record cold temperatures, including mentions of snow near the Great lakes and interior northeast. Highs today across northeastern OK will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with mid 70s likely along I-40 southward along with south winds from 10 to 25 mph. Storms will develop this afternoon and evening across western and southwestern OK as a surface low drops from the Panhandle into the Red River Valley. The cold front associated with this system will enter northern OK around 10pm tonight and cross the metro around midnight. Storms will be likely along this boundary, including threats of heavy rainfall and possibly a few strong to severe storms. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall for northeastern OK, while locations south of the metro may also have some large hail threats. Once this system passes our area, cooler and drier weather will persist through weekend with some locations nearing record lows by Saturday morning.
The upper air flow remains from the northwest. A stout upper level disturbance is rolling southward this morning and will bring strong winds aloft across the central plains this afternoon and entering our area later tonight. As this process begins, the pressure will fall to our west allowing a surface low pressure development zone across either southeastern Colorado or Northern New Mexico. Most data support this surface low moving southeast with time and entering the Red River Valley by this evening or early Friday morning. The trajectory of these features will keep the higher chances for severe weather slightly removed from the metro, but the presence of increasing moisture may still allow some gusty winds and dime hail with heavy rainfall threats. After today’s chances, the window for the northeastern Ok quadrant of the state tonight will begin around 11pm and end by 2am. Southeastern and east-central OK will experience the higher chance for storms between 1am and 3am with most of the storms moving out of our area of concern by 3am. Dry and cooler weather arrives with Friday highs remaining in the mid-60s. The pressure gradient will be strong early Friday with winds speeds from 20 to 30 mph for the first half of the day.
Saturday morning will be cold by May standards. The normal low for the metro is 56. We’ll be in the upper 30s to lower 40s near Tulsa, with some valley locations in the mid-30s. There should not be a freeze, but it may be close in shelter valleys. The weekend looks good but also cool with highs Saturday in the mid to upper 60s. Another fast-moving surface front crosses the area Sunday morning to the lack of moisture in the atmosphere will not support any showers.
Monday into Tuesday remains unsettled and possibly chilly. The EURO model has been consistently bringing another weak impulse across the state with showers. The GFS is now following suit and would bring rather chilly weather into the region if the precipitation output arrives as modeled with highs possibly in the upper 40s to lower 50s Monday. I’ll continue to keep our temps in the mid-50s for Monday and up a hair for Tuesday.
The pattern should change by the middle to end of next week and become more normal for May. This means a potent upper air flow from the southwest will bring more severe storm chances across the plains by the end of next week. This is normal for May in Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!