A very short-term Omega-block is up and running for the southern plains through at least Wednesday before the pattern changes as the western U.S. trough once again becomes active bringing storm chances, including severe weather threats, back to the plains and Oklahoma. The short term will feature very pleasant conditions with cool mornings followed by pleasant and dry afternoons for eastern OK as a mid-level ridge will dominate our weather. A closed low to our northeast will dive southeast over the next few days but will have little impact on sensible weather over eastern OK. A minor chance for a few showers or rumbles of thunder may exist Tuesday night into Wednesday across south-central Ok into the Red River Valley, but this activity should remain well removed from our area of concern.
By Thursday, rain and storm chances should return as the mid-level ridge weakens and the western U.S. trough makes progress moving eastward across more of the Western third of the United States. A warm front will move from the Red River across northeastern OK bringing storm chances back by Thursday morning. While the westerlies do appear to be gradually shifting northward, the positioning of the trough relative to the state will bring more than adequate lift and shear for storms by the end of this week into the weekend. Almost all data also supports another very active southern plains late-May pattern developing for the following week, the last week of May.
Temps will start this morning in the 50s with mostly clear sky and light northeast winds before highs reach the mid to upper 70s along with mostly sunny conditions later today. A few spots across extreme northeastern OK are cooler with readings into the upper 40s. A few areas of valley fog will be possible in these regions for a short period this morning. The above-mentioned cut-off to our northeast will bring some afternoon cumulus across far NE OK, SE Kansas and NW Arkansas, but this will have no major impact on temps. North winds will continue Tuesday morning before shifting back from the southeast later Tuesday into Wednesday as low level moisture attempts to return across the state. Temps will also be climbing. We’ll be back into the lower or mid 80s along with humid conditions Thursday through the weekend. I’ll have chances for storms from Thursday through the weekend, with best chances Thursday morning and then again Sunday as a front moves across part of the state.
Along the east coast this morning, the first named storm in the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Arthur, will brush the outer banks of North Carolina today and tonight with 50 mph sustained winds, heavy squalls and some coastal flooding. This is the 6 consecutive year that a named storm has developed in the Atlantic Basin before June 1st, which is considered the official start of hurricane season.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!