Increasing Heat, Humidity Expected This Weekend

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TULSA, Okla. - Summer is in full swing as the hot temperatures continue for another day across Green Country.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

The upper airflow remains favorable for the development of storm systems to our west and northwest that could impact portions of our immediate area over the next several days. A mid-level ridge of high pressure centered across Texas will attempt to nudge northward this weekend. Heat and humidity will continue to be the dominant feature into the weekend, but some low-end chances for a storm complex brushing our area must remain in the forecast.

A weak convectively induced area of vorticity is located across Northwestern Arkansas soon. This feature could spark a few scattered showers or storms across the Oklahoma and Arkansas state line region, but the chance remains very low. The overall pattern presents some uncertainty on the exact position and trajectories for the next two days regarding the exact positioning of a few storm systems. Our probabilities will remain mostly low for now but could easily increase as data becomes more certain. 

Another complex of storms is likely to develop across Southeastern Colorado and dive Southeast later this morning. This complex is anticipated to move across the western half of Oklahoma and may clip central to part of southeastern Oklahoma later tonight. The trajectory of this system should stay south of the immediate Tulsa Metro. Later on Thursday night, some hi-resolution data suggest a few showers or storms may re-develop around I-35 and move east near our area with yet another complex arriving across western OK from the high plains region. 

The strong upper-level flow will continue to move across the central plain states this weekend. One or more additional storm complexes will develop late Friday night and early Saturday and again Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Both storm systems could brush part of Northeastern Oklahoma. But the current trajectory of most data will keep the probability relatively low.

Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values from 95 to near 100. Another heat advisory will be issued for the immediate Tulsa metropolitan area due to additional heat stress for those areas still suffering from power outages related to this past weekend's destructive thunderstorms. Excessive heat warnings will remain across a large area of Texas this weekend. This heat dome and associated tropical moisture will move northward this weekend. Daytime highs will reach the mid and upper 90s Saturday and nearing 100 Sunday. Temperature heat index values are anticipated from 105 to near 109 and will trigger heat advisory criteria. Despite the northern edge of the mid-level ridge near northern Oklahoma Sunday, a surface boundary is expected to arrive bringing north winds by Sunday night. This should bring a minor cooldown on Monday with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-90s with tropical moisture suppressed slightly southward. The projections for the middle of next week are mostly centered upon the building heat and humidity. Triple digit ratings are likely for most of the middle to end of next week with heat indices from 105 to near 112. A break may arrive by the following weekend.

Tropical Storm Brett continues moving westward, nearing the Lesser Antilles, where Tropical Storm watches and warnings are posted. Another tropical system, Tropical Depression Four has formed this morning in the central Atlantic. This system is expected to be Tropical Storm Cindy later this morning. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV