Storm Threats Return Tonight With Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Green Country

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TULSA, Okla. - Expect more hot weather on Tuesday before storm threats return toward the evening hours.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

A few scattered showers and storms continue across portions of Southeastern Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. A few could develop near the metro south to near I-40 around sunrise. Most of this activity will quickly subside. A small area of storms is also noted across the far western OK state line region moving east. This activity should weaken with time on Tuesday morning across west-central OK but could be a wildcard if it continues moving east. Unfortunately, another complex of storms will be likely to develop later in the day on Tuesday across portions of Southeastern Colorado, Eastern Mexico, and the high plains of Texas. This complex will move eastward later tonight and will roll across part of Northern Oklahoma and Southeastern Kansas with threats of severe weather, including damaging winds. The exact location and trajectory may change slightly compared to the early morning data but locations near and north of Highway 412 will be in the running for this storm system, including the Tulsa metro. As the system moves eastward pre-dawn Wednesday, heat and humidity will quickly rise with triple digit weather likely for the rest of the week. Heat indices from 105 to near 110 will be expected. 

A strong mid-level ridge of high pressure centered across Texas is slowly nudging northward. The cold front that moved across our area Sunday is lifting slowly northward this morning. As this boundary approaches I-40 later this morning, and the peripheral of the ridge remains slightly to our south, the narrow window of zonal to Northwest flow aloft will be positioned across far north in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. It's this mid-level highway that will feature the complex of storms rolling near our area later tonight and exiting pre-dawn Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but the main threats will be damaging winds from 75 to 85 mph and some large hail. If the ridge nudges more northward than expected, this complex may stay slightly north of the metro. But at this point, we’ll need a healthy 50% probability in the metro with likely categories north across far northern OK into southern Kansas. The area is obviously still recovering from the recent windstorm. Weakened tree branches and limbs will be susceptible to any moderate or high winds. 

The mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen and expand northward Wednesday mid-morning taking showers and storm chances away from our area. Temperatures will rise into the upper-90s and lower 100 readings Wednesday even hotter conditions from central to western OK with heat indices from 105 to 112 across the eastern third of the state. The same conditions are likely Thursday. Most data support the ridge flattening Friday and migrating southeast of our immediate area. While stronger upper-level flow will be positioned slightly away from our immediate region, another surface boundary will approach this weekend. Minor forcing will occasionally result in scattered showers and storms. 

Temperatures this weekend will be near or even slightly below normal but only by a few degrees. This pattern should persist into the early part of next week including the 4th of July holiday

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV