Above Normal Temperatures For Tuesday Before Cold-Snap Arrives

We’re in store for another day of above normal temps along with sunshine and light winds before the pattern change brings rain and thunder back to eastern OK followed by another cold-snap Friday into Saturday.  The active weather pattern will remain with a strong system nearing the plains just before Thanksgiving.  Temperatures this morning will start in the 30s and 40s and end with highs near 70 from the metro west and the upper 60s across eastern OK resulting in a very pleasant fall afternoon compared to last week’s frosty weather.

 The main upper level pattern has transitioned from the northwest to the southwest and will bring several waves across the plains and Oklahoma soon.  The result will be increasing rain and thunder chances beginning Wednesday and ending sometime Friday morning.  While this pattern can and does bring severe weather to the southern plains during the fall months, the severe parameters will be lacking for this system across the state.

 The upper flow finds a strong looking closed low near the Baja this morning along with a developing longwave trough across the western U.S.  The first wave, the Baja low, will move northeast in the flow quickly tonight into Wednesday as it begins to open and weaken.  Pressure falls along the Lee of the Rockies into the plains will cause gusty south winds increasing later tonight into Wednesday with south winds from 20 to 30 mph by midday to afternoon Wednesday.  Low level and mid-level moisture will be rapidly increasing during this period with a few showers anytime Wednesday morning nearing the area.  But a better period for showers and some thunder will be Wednesday afternoon and evening as this lead wave ejects into the central plains and continues moving into the Midwest.  Directly following this wave, the main longwave trough across the west will begin moving eastward and bringing another chance for showers and storms into the area sometime Thursday into early Friday before also exiting the area.  This longwave trough will also help to bring a surface cold front southward by Thursday.  We may start Thursday morning in the lower 60s, but temperatures should fall into the mid to upper 40s by late Thursday afternoon and continue dropping into the 30s by early Friday morning.  The air aloft will also be colder Friday but most precipitation should be exiting before any real wintry weather can develop.  I’ll not make any mentions for the 7-day planner regarding snow showers or mix but a few spots of wintry weather may still occur across Osage County into southern Kansas early Friday morning. The weekend looks dry and pleasant, yet Saturday will remain chilly. 

Next week continues to bring a strong looking system into the plains Tuesday or Wednesday but the data remain inconsistent on some important features that could result in some wintry weather for part of the state versus all rain.  For this update cycle, we’ll be mentioning rain and thunder for part of Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone