A stout upper level wave will move across the center of the nation today and eject eastward as a negatively tilted long wave trough providing strong dynamics for severe thunderstorms across Arkansas and the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight. This system will barley brush eastern Oklahoma this morning with some spotty showers along with embedded thunder before the system encounters much deeper moisture along with severe weather profiles to our east. The upper air flow will become mostly zonal by midweek before another northwest flow develops this weekend. This will basically bring another surface front into the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with temps dropping below the seasonal average for the rest of the week. We may be dealing with some freezing morning lows Friday and Saturday morning.
A strong surface low is developing this morning across southwestern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma and will move ENE with gusty south winds ahead of the developing system for a few hours this morning before relaxing some by afternoon into the evening. Warm-air advection type showers will continue to develop as low-level moisture is quickly drawn into the developing system due to very strong winds aloft moving into the central plains. We’ll see increasing chances for showers near northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas between now and approximately 10 a.m. to noon when the forcing should move into western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected for our area. Most of the activity this morning will be void of thunder but once activity begins to develop or spread into areas east of the metro, some thunder and lightning will be possible. If you have travel plans today or more so this evening into east Texas or southern Arkansas into the Middle Mississippi Valley, please remain aware of your weather surroundings as severe weather threats will be increasing in these areas.
Highs today will be in the mid-60s along with spotty showers developing this morning before being swept into western Arkansas by noon. We may have partially clearing sky by midday to afternoon behind this initial push of showers. Tuesday morning lows will be in the lower 40s with highs in the mid to upper 60s near 70 with southeast winds before our next front arrives Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with a few showers as the surface boundary moves across the state. The best chance will remain across locations along or south of the I-40 region. Unless the system increases speeds, this will have little impact on Election weather across eastern Oklahoma with any showers confined to after polling hours.
Wednesday morning lows will be in the mid-40s with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Another fast-moving wave will drop into the state Thursday with a chilly rain possible. Lows will be in the lower 40s with highs in the mid to upper 40s along with gusty north winds.
Lows Friday morning will be in the lower 30s with highs in the upper 40s. Saturday morning lows may be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs in the lower 50s.
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