The front that made an appearance across part of the area this weekend has lifted northward as a warm front. Its currently located across southeastern Kansas and curves back down into far northwestern Oklahoma. This should continue to lift northward through the day. This has placed the warm and humid sector back across eastern Oklahoma with local dew points in the 70s. As I’m posting early this morning, a segment of thunderstorm activity is located along and slightly north of the warm front across far northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas and will continue to lift away from the area early this morning. A few showers and storms are continuing in the warm sector and will move northward this morning. After early this morning, I anticipate that most of the day will be rain free across eastern Oklahoma. Storms are likely today to our west and will move into our area later tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday in a weakening state. Tuesday afternoon and evening the main upper level system will eject eastward bringing the cold front back across the state with thunderstorms likely across central to eastern Oklahoma. Some of the storms could be severe. Once the front passes pre-dawn Wednesday, we’ll finally experience a few days of fall like weather with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s through the end of the week. Another system may impact the state Saturday. Highs this afternoon will move back into the 80s along with south winds and a mix of sun and clouds and humid weather.
The main upper level pattern supports a strong upper level low over the desert southwest this morning with a ridge across the east. This trough will become elongated soon and eject into the central plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. The mid-level ridge to our east will jog northeast and allow Hurricane Michael to move northeast into the Florida panhandle region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a pacific basin storm, Hurricane Sergio, will move east-northeast and weaken to tropical storm status later this week. The remnant system will merge with the next upper level trough dropping out of the inter mountain region later this week and could bring some activity weather to part of the state Friday or Saturday. Currently, the main impacts from this developing pattern would mostly be to our west or southwest Friday. It’s Saturday that could be the most active. The data is inconsistent regarding some important placement of a developing surface low that would combine with the leftover Sergio moisture for Saturday. We’ll currently have some relatively low pops for Saturday, but this could change in subsequent forecast updates.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.