A front has moved into southern Kansas and will slip into northern Oklahoma early this morning before stalling and slowly lifting northward as a warm front later today. Showers and storms will be likely this morning across southern Kansas across part of northeastern OK, including very close to the Tulsa metro. While a few heavy storms with downpours are currently underway across far northern Oklahoma storms are not expected to be severe. Temps will remain mild this morning with many locations in the 70s. Daytime highs are expected to move into the mid to upper 80s again today along with south winds and generally muggy weather. Locations north of the boundary, across southern Kansas may stay in the upper 70s this afternoon. This means some locations in far northern Oklahoma may also have a nice reduction in temps today, but most should be moving back into the 80s by afternoon. Additional storms will be possible at times this weekend as a large storm system to our west will send impulses around the base of the trough and across the southern and central plains. This will result in scattered showers and storms for some locations.
Another front will enter northwestern Oklahoma Friday night and become positioned along the I-44 corridor region Saturday morning to midday and should also stall in this general location. The key word here is “should”. The NAM, usually superior with shallow fronts, is attempting to shove this front into southeastern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. This would knock our highs down into the 60s Saturday afternoon across northern Oklahoma. At this point, I’m inclined to follow the lead of the EURO and keep with our current trend of the boundary stalling north and lifting northward Sunday as a warm front. With this scenario, locations along and northwest of this front Saturday will have the best chance for showers and storms while locations to the south and east will have lower chances. Temps also will be varied with 80s to the southeast of the boundary and upper 70s to the northwest. This boundary will lift northward Sunday as a warm front. As this occurs, showers and storms will develop Sunday morning along and north of the boundary and lift northward through day. The best chances will again be focused along the I-44 corridor region.
Early next week the main upper level trough will become elongated across the inter mountain region creating a nearly south to north upper air flow. Storms will become likely Monday across far western Oklahoma and will slowly migrate eastward Tuesday and Wednesday while the main upper level support slowly ejects to the central and northern plains. This will create more rain and storms Tuesday afternoon or evening for the eastern third of the state. But Tuesday night into Wednesday as the support is focused mostly northward, the activity may become more scattered. The actual boundary may become mostly diffuse and washout Thursday as the next upper level trough develops to the west. The data support a frontal passage with a drier and cooler air mass could arrive in time for next weekend.
This pattern is a moving target and additional changes are likely for the weekend forecast into early next week.