As I’m posting early this morning (2:46 am) our sky is clear across most of northeastern OK. Stratus is not developing to our south at this moment, but point soundings indicate some cloud cover should develop during the next few hours.
I’m unsure if this will be a total stratus deck but we should have some developing soon before mixing some by afternoon.
Around midday to early afternoon, some scattered showers will be possible, mostly across south central OK, with highs in the Tulsa metro around the mid-80s. South winds will increase speeds some today in the 10 to 20 mph range, but stronger south to southwest winds will impact the area tomorrow with highs nearing the upper 80s to near 90 along with an elevated fire danger across the region.
A weak boundary will approach northern OK Thursday morning and stall across southern Kansas. A few showers or storms may migrate from southern Kansas into far northern OK early Thursday. These pops will remain low.
This boundary will move northward Friday before entering the state again Saturday and Sunday, then lifting northward Monday. The front will finally cross the state Tuesday night into Wednesday with more rain and storm chances followed by cooler air Wednesday through the end of next week. Until this happens, warm and humid weather will remain across the state.
The main upper level pattern will bring a strong upper level trough across the western third of the state for the 2nd half of the week before ejecting into the central plains Tuesday or Wednesday.
Before the main trough ejects, several small waves will rotate around the base of the trough and influence our weather for several days. Lee side pressure falls across the Rockies will keep the surface boundary on a string, sloshing southward and then retreating northward for several days during this process. The main impact of storm chances will arrive this weekend and continue into next week with decent chances.
The front will be nearing northern OK this weekend but should retreat northward Monday. Additional storms will be likely Monday across western OK with progressing storm chances eastward Tuesday. The front finally crosses the eastern OK region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
We continue to see differences in the positioning of the main upper level trough early next week which could have some impacts on sensible weather for the 2nd half of next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.