It has been a soggy start to September for Oklahoma. Not everyone has seen a good soaking quite yet, but a plume of Tropical moisture continues to lift into the state from the Gulf of Mexico. In response, Flood Watches have been posted both east and west of our viewing area. On top of that, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are set to bring parts of Green Country even more rain by the end of the week. Most of the flooding has been confined to central Oklahoma so far, but that risk is rising for Green Country.
The storm system stalled over the state is rather weak. It’s not enough to generate anything beyond an isolated severe storm. However, the amount of moisture it continues to stream up from the south is leading to training heavy rainfall. These efficient rain-producing cells can quickly inundate a landscape or the roads on which you drive. This pattern will be with us another few days before it gets a shove eastward. This same system has led to widespread flooding over parts of the Midwest as well.
By Friday, we might be adding the rains of Gordon in the mix. Its current track may keep the center of its circulation just over Arkansas, but the associated energy may spawn widespread showers and storms further west as you see above. Between then and now, more scattered showers and storms will continue to bubble up and dump rain at random. Friday’s enhancement of rain may be just enough to generate flash flooding. As our soils become saturated, it will be easy to get run-off, which leads to flooding.
By Saturday, much of Gordon’s energy and the lingering ribbon of Tropical moisture will start to get shoved east. While the clouds may not scour out, showers may taper off just in time for the Gathering Place opening events. While it still could literally rain on their parade, the chance is low at this time. As the weekend goes on, we should gradually clear out. Above is our Gathering Place Opening Day forecast.
Rain amounts will vary quite a bit from spot to spot. Some places might see a couple inches of rain between now and the weekend while many of us receive half an inch or even less. Above is a computer model’s idea of rain totals through Sunday. These totals will put another nice dent in the drought that remains north of Tulsa. The city officially has a rainfall deficit of 5” for the year, and we’ll cut into that a bit further as well.
After the weekend, we dry out. It might be a significant dry spell as a ridge of high pressure in the jet stream slowly builds overhead. This will also bring back the heat. While it’s getting late in the season to see triple-digits again, we could end up back in the 90s for highs. Given recent rainfall, that heat index could climb back to the century mark. After Labor Day, we usually start to see temperatures gradually cooling off, but this wet spell won’t slide us into fall-like readings quite yet. Below is the hot outlook through mid-September.