A fast-zonal flow will remain across the central plains for the next few days after a short wave moves into the upper Midwest to Great Lakes region this morning. A surface cold front is moving southward and will move across northeastern Oklahoma before stalling later today across the southern sections. Scattered showers and storms will be possible, and even likely in some spots, near the vicinity of the boundary both today before the front lifts northward Thursday morning to midday. A possible MCS may slide from southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma Thursday morning through midday. We’ll get a minor break from the heat today, yet muggy weather is likely to remain with temperatures moving back above seasonal averages Friday into the Labor Day holiday weekend.
Scattered showers and storms populated western Oklahoma last night and we’re dealing with some “leftover” storms this morning across part of northeastern Oklahoma early this morning. These are not expected to be severe this morning but later today a few storms could become severe with daytime heating as temps climb into the upper 80s. Winds will be variable with northeast or east winds across northern sections and south winds across southeastern Oklahoma. The coverage of storm activity this morning should remain spotty but may increase again later today and this afternoon. While upper level support across Oklahoma remains weak with the departing short wave moving into the Great Lakes, enough instability and moisture will exist for damaging down bursts of winds and pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. Most data support some kind of small MCS brushing southeastern Kansas Thursday morning with the potential for this system to influence part, but not all of northeastern Oklahoma Thursday midday. Our pops are currently set at 30% but I may increase this slightly to account for this wild card.
As the front lifts northward Thursday morning to midday, most of the state will become enveloped once again with high humidity and increasing temperature. Morning lows will remain in the 70s with highs in the lower to mid-90s Friday through the Labor Day Holiday period. A small disturbance is expected to brush northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas this weekend but currently, data support only a limited mention of showers or storms Sunday night into Monday. This could change in subsequent forecast cycles but if so, would be only low mentions for northern Oklahoma at this point. The EURO seems to be the more believable solution for this weekend into early next week and offers a building ridge.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.