Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast today and for the next few days and some may be severe. But first some good news:
A strong cold front is likely to move across the state Sunday night into Monday bringing a few pleasant days next week. Most data support dry air arriving Monday afternoon and lasting for a day or two and will bring dew points down into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Today, however, the high moisture content atmosphere across eastern Oklahoma could crank the heat index values into the 100 range in some locations. There will also continue to be storm chances today, tonight and Friday morning as yet another wave in a series of disturbances moves across the state. We may get a break Saturday before the final disturbance arrives Sunday into Monday with additional storm chances followed by the frontal passage Monday morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The model data regarding this afternoon and evening is highly inconsistent.
The upper air flow remains from the west-northwest to southeast today and will become slightly sharper during the next 24 to 36 hours. The short-term guidance remains “iffy” regarding the first and second period storm chances, but our forecast seems to handle this uncertainty regardless with a mention for storms through midday to early afternoon. I’ll more than likely increase the probabilities for early afternoon as a disturbance approaches the area. If storms do form, they’ll be severe with the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A few scattered showers or storms may fester along the boundary stretched across part of northeastern and southeastern OK this morning. These scattered storm chances will remain low. Some patchy fog may also occur in some location due to the high moisture content across the area.
Storms are ongoing to our west this morning and may not totally survive the trip into the area later. But a convectively induced area of vorticity probably will exist and enter our area by early afternoon. A weak boundary is also positioned near the metro and may provide a focus for these storms later. We could have a few storms Friday night into Saturday morning based on the pattern recognition, but the data remain rather sparse with triggering mechanisms.
Finally, Sunday the next and last disturbance in this series will swing out of the inter mountain region and impact the state with increasing rain and storm chances by afternoon and evening across eastern Oklahoma with heavy rainfall threats and some severe weather potential. As stated above the next surface front will move southeast and clear the area Monday morning bringing some much-needed relief for a few days next week with morning lows dropping into the 60s and highs in the mid-80s along with much lower humidity. Of course, the EURO is trying to shorten the party with another system Wednesday of next week. Yet the American counterpart continues to be void of this system.
We may see a few scattered showers and storms this morning along the boundary positioned across northern Oklahoma. Later today additional storms will be possible for some locations that could be severe. Highs this afternoon should reach the lower 90s with heat index values around 100 before some rain cooled air could provide some temporary relief for some locations.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.