Weekend Storm Chances Remain

Saturday, June 23rd 2018, 6:07 am
By: Alan Crone

The morning complex has basically cleared southeastern OK and continues to roll across part of northeastern TX and southwestern Arkansas early this morning.  Locations along the I-40 region northward will continue with some spotty showers and storms for the next few hours before this activity gradually diminishes.  While a few models try to redevelop some showers and storms around midday across northeastern OK, I’ll continue with a more plausible scenario for additional storms later today and tonight. 

Additional forcing will arrive from the west by midday to afternoon and move across an increasingly unstable atmosphere that will be located across at least the southern half of the state.  This morning’s complex will deposit at least one, and possibly other outflow boundaries that may become active late this afternoon into the evening hours.  The true synoptic boundary appears to be located well south of the area this morning but may move northward later today.  The positioning of these boundaries will play big roles in where severe weather may occur later this afternoon into tonight.  Highs this afternoon should rebound into the mid-80s across northeastern OK and possibly into the lower 90s across southeastern sections.

Sometime later this afternoon and early evening, additional scattered storms will attempt to develop.  These are anticipated to be super cell storms initially with all modes of severe weather possible.  Any storms with the updraft along the boundary will have a better potential to produce a tornado in addition to large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  Later in the evening, storms will tend to build southward and congeal into one or more small storm complexes before exiting southeastern OK around midnight to 2am.  

Sunday into early next week another stout looking upper level trough will move from the western U.S. into the central plains.  This pattern, more spring like than summer, will allow additional storms to develop across Kansas Sunday through Tuesday and some significant severe weather may occur Sunday into Monday across central Kansas. 

Even though mid-level heights will be rising across Texas into southern OK, the pattern will remain favorable for bringing some of these storms into northern OK.  The NAM appears to be the outlier with a fast developing MCS Sunday midday into the afternoon, but the higher likelihood will remain for a complex to brush part of northern OK and southeastern Kansas late Sunday night into Monday morning, and then again possibly late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Our forecast will continue to keep a decent chance for storms during this periods for these locations.  This would include pops for the metro.

Wednesday through the end of the week will be dominated by the increasing mid-level ridge.  This means the heat and humidity will again take the headlines with heat advisory level criteria possible Wednesday through Friday.

Thanks for reading the Saturday morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone