Once again, the MCS highway has been active overnight. The storm complex that developed across eastern Kansas last night dropped southeast and is currently positioning to move across part of northeastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours. A few strong to severe storms will continue to be possible with damaging winds and hail the main threats along with some heavy rainfall for some spots. By the time most folks read this post, the complex will be either exiting into southeastern Oklahoma or beginning to fall apart. Our air mass will remain the same. This means high temps will range from the lower or a few mid 90s today along with THI numbers around 100 to 102 for the metro and slightly lower across eastern Oklahoma.
The mid-level ridge located to our southwest will give us one more window for a northwest flow event late tonight into Wednesday morning before moving eastward and limiting this current stretch of storm chances. The 2nd half of the week should feature the ridge near us keeping the main systems away and the heat back into the mid-90s with THI values around 99 to 104. As is normal for June, the ridge will migrate again early next week but this time should be sliding eastward allowing a deeper fetch of low level moisture from the Gulf to invade Texas and possibly Oklahoma. Models are not clear yet, but this could bring scattered showers and storms into the area along with a reduction in daytime highs due to the influence of clouds and pockets of rain-cooled air. Again, we’re several days away from this part of the forecast and it’s far from a lock. The GFS is hinting at some moisture returning this weekend across far eastern OK in advance. We’re also watching the Pacific hurricane Bud that may send moisture in our direction early next week.
What happens later today? It basically depends upon the next few hours. A residual outflow or possible MCV (convectively induced area of vorticity) may allow some scattered showers or storms to develop later today into the afternoon. We’ll not know this exact scenario for another few hours until we see how the atmosphere responds in the wake of the overnight and early morning MCS. Regardless, I’ll keep a very low chance for a few storms during the day at 20% before keeping our late night and Wednesday morning pops at a 30% to 40% chance. Again, to be clear, the chance early this morning is increasing across southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, including the metro, for the early morning hours
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.