Our next chance for a few showers or storms will arrive later tonight into Wednesday morning across the northern third of the state into southern Kansas. The coverage should be low, but a few storms can’t be ruled out for some locations. The threat for severe weather will remain low. The next chance will arrive for the weekend with a system nearing Sunday with a chance for a few storms. The data this morning is not nearly as robust with the precip signal compared to previous days. But this may be an outlier or possibly just a delay in the main system. We’ll need to keep a decent chance in the forecast for the Sunday into Monday period. A few of these Sunday storms may become strong to severe based on the pattern and climo. The GFS continues to be the faster data set while the typically solid EURO is later with the boundary for Sunday afternoon and never really pushes the front too far into the state Sunday night into Monday. This tends to support the potential for more active weather next week.
The temperature profile for the entire week appears rather warm. Our friends and neighbors in the southwestern and western third of the state will be in the mid-90s for the next few days while our region across eastern Oklahoma should easily hit the upper 80s with a few spots at 90 again today. The clouds should begin to become more optically thick later in the day which would tend to keep the highs down slightly compared to yesterday. Yet if the clouds are delayed, even by a few hours this afternoon before turning mostly cloudy, our highs will hit the 90 mark once again.
The increasing south winds for the middle to end of the week will also be fetching increasing low-level moisture. This will eventually yield higher dew points and consequently higher humidity values Thursday into the weekend.
The upper air flow this morning remains from the northwest but will tend to flatten for a few days or two later this week before transitioning to a southwest flow this weekend.
Warm and breezy weather will be likely, not only today, but for the entire week and for most, if not all of the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.