Our focus for the next few days will be in the threat for severe weather across the state, including Eastern Oklahoma for the middle of the week. Gusty south winds will remain this week in the form of 20 to 35 mph winds which will bring warm and humid conditions across the region.
Highs today will be near the lower 80s with temps mostly in the upper 70s near 80 for afternoon highs Tuesday through Thursday as the main storm system ejects across the middle portion of the country. Rain chances will decrease late Thursday night or pre-dawn Friday as a surface boundary pushes southeast across Eastern OK with dry and generally pleasant conditions through most of next weekend.
A few showers or storms may be possible later tonight into early Tuesday across northern Oklahoma as a subtle wave quickly moves across the area. These will not be severe. Higher chances for strong to severe storms will be arriving Wednesday evening into the night and into Thursday.
There will remain some questions regarding the exact outcome of the system, but severe weather parameters will be increasing Wednesday and possibly Thursday across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible yet not all locations may experience the severe storms.
A powerful upper level system is developing across the western U.S. while a mid-level ridge is positioned downstream across the southeastern part of the nation. Low pressure continues to deepen across the Lee of the Rockies and will eject into the central plains soon. South winds will blow across the Gulf of Mexico bringing rich low-level moisture through Texas into the state and advancing northward into the central plains today through Thursday.
A dry line will become established across well west of the area today and tomorrow while warm air aloft spreads from the Mexican plateau area across most of the southern plains later today and tonight. This will most likely cap the atmosphere across eastern OK from surface-based storm activity for a day or two before colder air aloft overspreads the region beginning sometime Wednesday.
Even though this capping inversion should suppress storm activity for most locations today and tonight to the east, a few will be likely directly along the dry line. Additionally, a few elevated storms may also develop near or over northeastern OK late tonight through pre-dawn. If these do develop, the main threats would be some hail and gusty winds. These would quickly move into southeastern Kansas Tuesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon and evening a lead disturbance is expected to round the basal portion of the main western U.S. trough will nearly 115 mph winds. Strong lifting will occur ahead of the dry line and scattered super cell storms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening.
It’s impossible to know at this point how many storms are likely to form, but any that do so would be quite capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. More than likely, this threat will continue late Wednesday night into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.
Thursday morning storms will be likely across part of eastern OK, some of which may still be severe. The tendency, however, will be for storms to gradually weaken Thursday morning to midday as the above noted jet streak ejects into the central plains. Yet the main upper trough will be drawing closer to the region by Thursday afternoon with additional storms attempting to reform by afternoon and early evening.
The severity and location of the Thursday afternoon and evening storms will depend to a great extent to what happens late Wednesday night and pre-dawn Thursday. Regardless, the severe weather threats may continue across southeastern or eastern OK Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday morning the surface front finally crosses the area bringing dry air and the demise of the thunderstorm activity. At this point, most of the weekend appears pleasant.
Residents in the central and southern plains are encouraged to remain aware of your weather surroundings for the next few days as this storm system unfold across the area.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.