Our current upper level trough continues to be located to our southwest this morning and is not projected to exit our region until later tonight into Thursday morning. Until this takes place, showers will remain possible for some locations today and later this evening. Unlike yesterday’s heavy rain and thunderstorms, today's activity will be spotty and very light. There is a chance most of the precip will remain south of the metro but I’ll keep a decent shot for Tulsa due to the proximity of the trough. A broad trough is also located across the Lake Hudson region of eastern Canada with a fast-moving disturbance expected to arrive Thursday into Thursday night across the central plains as it rounds the base of the Hudson Bay trough. This may also be just enough lift to generate a few showers or rumbles of thunder Thursday morning. As these two features exit our region, we’ll dry out and slowly warm up Friday into Saturday before a strong cold front rolls across the plains Saturday into Sunday bringing much colder weather back to the state for Easter Sunday.
The timing of the weekend front continues to be tricky in the data but should allow us to reach the upper 60s or lower 70s Saturday midday to afternoon before the front arrives with north winds and colder air Saturday night into Sunday. There may be some showers or storms with this frontal passage, but our current system has pushed most of the significant low-level moisture well southeast of the state. It’s unlikely that a quality and deep moisture return can occur before the weekend front arrives. While we’ll keep a mention for some showers or storms with this front, the threat for typical spring severe storms will remain very low.
The Sunday forecast continues to trend much colder in the EURO and not as robust in the GFS. We’ve basically put most of the Easter eggs in the EURO basket at this point. GFS is cool but not nearly as cold as the EURO counterpart. Our current forecast indicates that temperatures Sunday morning may end up being the warmer part of the day with readings in the 40 dropping into the upper 30s by midday to afternoon. To complicate things even more, there will be a signal for some post frontal showers Sunday for part of northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. And…drum roll…if the EURO temp fields are correct, the potential for some wintry precip is not impossible along the state line into southeast Kansas. Monday morning readings will be near freezing with highs only rebounding to near the mid-50s. The pattern and support from model data suggest another strong cold front could arrive by the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.