Warm-Up Across Eastern Oklahoma Continues

Our main issues revolve around the positioning of the Sunday pops and the influence on temps across eastern Oklahoma.  The warming trend is underway with yesterday’s readings topping out in the upper 40s.  Most locations will reach the mid or even upper 50s across eastern Oklahoma today, which is above most of the model guidance.  The pressure gradient should be increasing into the weekend and this means our surface winds (from the southeast) will increase speeds near 20 to 30 mph today into Saturday.  Morning lows tomorrow should take a big jump into the mid-40s for the metro with highs into the 60s Saturday afternoon with a sun-cloud mix. 

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Tomorrow we should start with clouds and sustained south winds around 10 to 15 mph during the morning hours.  This should also keep the lows in the mid-40s around the metro and maybe slightly lower across eastern Oklahoma.  If the low-level moisture return is greatly than currently anticipated, a few small areas of spotty drizzle would be possible. At this hour, It appears we should only experience the clouds.   Later Saturday afternoon, a sun-cloud mixture is expected with gusty south winds and highs in the lower 60s.

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The main upper level system is still just off the west coast and will be nearing the plains into the weekend.  This dynamically positively tilted trough will bring warmer weather into the southern plains along with a chance for rain and storms Sunday midday to afternoon.  The pattern recognition supports the mention of severe weather with this system but we’re unsure about the exact amount and quality of low level moisture returning Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This system should have more than adequate shear for severe weather but may not have enough potential energy from a moisture standpoint until it exits the state.  Nonetheless, we’re continuing our mention for a few storms near the metro Sunday with higher probabilities for locations along and east of Highway 69.  The absolute best chance for storms will be across extreme southeast Oklahoma, where a few strong to severe storms will be possible.  I’ve continued to make some adjustments to the Tulsa metro pop.  It’s much lower compared to previous days, but we still have a slight chance in the forecast for Tulsa with this system.

The system is very strong and may allow a dry line feature to pass the metro around 3 pm to 4 pm before the pacific cold front moves across the area late Sunday evening.  Therefore, there may be a window for temps to jump into the upper 60s with southwest winds after the dry line passage and before the front.   The air mass behind the front will cool-down Monday with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.   Pleasant and rather uneventful weather should remain for a few days next week before our next weather maker arrives about this time next week into the weekend.

In summary, the warm-up continues today and into the weekend with increasing wind speed.  The fire danger may also be elevated during these periods.   A few showers or storms will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday through the afternoon as the next storm system nears the state.  But the higher chances will remain across far southeastern Oklahoma.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.