Fire Danger Increasing With Warmer Temps Across Green Country

South winds will return later today ahead of a fast-moving clipper type system that will dive down across the central plains bringing another frontal boundary across the state this afternoon and evening.   Before this occurs we’re on track for highs moving back into the mid-60s today along with sunshine and southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph before shifting out of the northwest by midday to afternoon. The fire danger will remain at elevated levels today due to the dry conditions and breezy weather.   This pattern will bring cooler weather back later tonight that will keep Thursday afternoon highs in the upper 40s north and lower 50s south.   Friday into the weekend a strong upper level wave will develop and move across the state with strong south to southwest winds likely by Saturday morning to early afternoon in the range of 20 to 30 mph.   The anticipated environmental weather conditions will lead to elevated fire danger conditions.  

Weather Alerts

Both GFS and EURO data will now be offering a chance of a few showers Sunday as a surface low develops across south central Oklahoma into north Texas and moves eastward Sunday morning to midday.   We’ve added these low pops into the forecast update at this point but may increase the chance a little in subsequent cycles later today.   Even if we do get to participate in a few showers Sunday, the better and deeper moisture will remain across far southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

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Monday and Tuesday of next week will feature lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s.

We continue to see signs in the longer-range data of a major pattern change for the middle to end of December, including the Christmas Holiday period for the state.   This pattern would be more favorable for both colder air to spill southward from the Canadian region and for the southern stream to become more active.   Most operational data suggest a strong front will move near the state around December 22nd or so bringing a sharply colder air mass into the nation.   We’re obviously many days away from this period but the trends do remain in the forecast for this pattern change. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.