We’re tracking two fronts over the next 5 to 7 days. One arrives later tonight into Saturday morning across eastern Oklahoma and the 2nd arrives early next week bringing another taste of fall weather to the state. We continue to have some timing differences regarding the arrival of the 2nd front and the exact impact on Mondays daytime highs. More on this later.
Of concern in the short term is the possibility of a few showers or storms this morning slightly north of the metro for a few hours. A weak wave that generated some light showers late yesterday afternoon and evening may still be influencing our area early this morning and some of the short term hi-res models are hinting at the above scenario. This was not in my forecast yesterday morning for this Friday early morning period but I may need to add a slight chance between now and 11 am near the metro northward into southern Kansas. Other than this quick-kick on 3rd down, it appears all other portions of the short-term game plan is on track.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s along with some sunshine-cloud mix and gusty south winds around 15 to 25 mph. A positively tilted trough now over the inter mountain region of the Rockies will move rapidly eastward later today before exiting the central plains Saturday midday to afternoon. A surface front developing to our northwest will quickly move southward later tonight bringing a round of showers and storms across part of the state, including northeastern Oklahoma during the pre-dawn to early morning hours of Saturday. A surface area of low pressure should develop across southwestern Kansas early this afternoon and eject east to northeast later into Saturday morning. As this occurs the surface front will move southeast with shower and storm potential along the front. Some severe weather may occur across the panhandle region into far NW Oklahoma and SW Kansas later this evening with all modes of severe weather a possibility in that area. As the front rapidly moves eastward the instability factor is expected to decrease significantly with time and space as the system moves into central and northeastern Oklahoma. We are not expecting severe weather threats once the line reaches northeastern Oklahoma early Saturday morning. This front and associated rainfall is also expected to quickly clear the eastern portion of the area by early to midday Saturday as the above mentioned trough also leaves the region. Northwest surface winds and dry air will clear the sky with mostly sunny and pleasant weather midday to afternoon across the area. If our timing holds, most of the weekend will be fine.
Later Saturday evening south winds will quickly return as yet the next system develops to the northwest. As this next upper level wave moves across the central plains Monday into Tuesday another strong front will move southeastward bringing a nice cool down with fall-like temps sticking around for the better part of next week. The model data has been extremely inconsistent (model vs model) regarding the timing of the front and consequently the impact of the temps for Monday. The EURO is faster and cooler while the GFS continues to be slower and much warmer Monday ( almost hot) before the cooler air arrives Tuesday. Precipitation output with the front has also decreased quite a bit, possibly because of the impact of Hurricane Nate that will be impacting the southeastern coastal region ( near New Orleans) this weekend. This system may disrupt the theta-e and moisture transport into the plains ahead of the Monday front. I’ll continue with a chance for some precip but it will remain low.
Another system should be nearing the state for the 2nd half of the Oct 14th -15th weekend.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.