The pattern will remain very summer-like for the rest of the week into the weekend before a major western U.S. trough shoves a strong cold front into the area sometime next week. The best-guess operational and ensemble data suggests this should happen around Tuesday or Wednesday with a nice reduction in temperature for the 2nd half of next week. But until this happens we're stuck with tropical-like conditions across eastern Oklahoma resulting in temp heat index numbers around or even above 100 or so for the next few days. Morning lows will also be quite warm with most locations in the lower to mid-70s for the next few days. South winds will prevail around 15 to 25 mph today and tomorrow and may be drop slightly in speed this weekend. Before the major pattern change occurs next week, we're still not totally void of precip chances for the next few days including later tonight and pre-dawn Thursday.
A weak front will be entering part of the state later tonight and should be positioned along the I-44 corridor region by early evening. Warm air aloft should suppress most of the area from deep convection but a few storms seem likely across far southeastern Kansas and extreme northeastern Oklahoma later this evening. I tend to keep these probabilities on the low side due to the expected small coverage and limited impact regarding the timing of occurrence. This weak boundary will lift northward rapidly Thursday morning leaving the region squarely in the warm and muggy sector for the weekend.
As the weekend nears, storms will become possible across far western Oklahoma but I still think our chances will remain only isolated and across the extreme eastern Oklahoma area until sometime early next week when the above-mentioned trough helps to bring the stronger front into the area. While I’m not ready to throw out specific numbers for temps, Wednesday of next week will be near normal and Thursday into the weekend well below the seasonal average. Bring it on!
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.