A cold front has moved southward this morning and is located to the south of the metro at this hour. Very little shower and thunderstorm activity developed with the boundary yesterday afternoon and evening. I suppose a few showers may still develop this morning along and south of the metro but the odds appear very low. Later this afternoon a few spotty showers or storms will have a slightly better chance of developing across far southeastern Oklahoma.
Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 60s along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph for the day. Daytime highs are expected in the mid-80s. Weather for the rest of the week will remain pleasantly “not as hot” with lows in the lower 60s along with highs in mid 80s. The Thursday through the weekend forecast hinges on the eventual outcome of the Harvey circulation. The models remain highly varied with specific tracking information due to the anticipation of very light steering currents. The official forecast from the NHC center will bring the system eventually northeast into East Texas, western Louisiana, and into southern Arkansas by this weekend. The different models do offer widely different tracks with the GFS moving almost due north with the system influencing the state Thursday through the weekend while the EURO (more favored solution) keeps the main impacts well east of Oklahoma. If the EURO verifies, we’ll have zero precipitation impacts from Harvey.
We think the prudent call is to keep some very low mentions in the forecast from Thursday into part of the weekend because of the low confidence of the data but this forecast could change dramatically by the end of the week. As you well know by now, Harvey has been and continues to be catastrophic for a large area of the southeast gulf coastal region with historic flooding and rainfall due to this broad and slow moving system.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning forecast discussion and blog.