We’re tracking the potential for a few storms later this evening along with some overnight and early morning storms for some locations. An active pattern is expected this weekend with additional storm chances. The result will be continuation of below normal temps for the weekend after today’s highs in the lower 90s.
A surface front will move across the area Thursday afternoon or evening with a chance for storms followed by another cool-down Friday into part of the weekend. The upper air pattern will remain active with another wave nearing the region sometime Saturday afternoon or evening and lasting into part of Sunday before another front surges southward Sunday afternoon or evening.
At this point, we don’t see any major heat waves developing anytime in the immediate future. A big departure from the previous month and a departure from what is historically a hot time for the state.
Winds will return form the south today as the next upper wave develops and moves across the central U.S. This will drive a surface front into the area this afternoon and evening with a chance for storms across southern Kansas and part of northern Oklahoma. One or two of these could be strong to near severe but the odds will be rather low. Most data support another wave developing behind the front (and still ahead of the main trough) that would trigger some post frontal showers and storms into pre-dawn Friday across part of the area. This activity would drop southward early Friday morning. Clouds may linger for a few hours and act to keep the Friday highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s across eastern sections of the state.
We’ll be in good shape Friday night through the first half of Saturday before the next upper wave influences our area with a chance for additional showers or storms into Sunday morning. The timing continues to be an issue but we have spread the pops from Saturday evening into Sunday morning with highs in the mid-80s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday. I do need to stress that our timing for this 2nd wave may change. This means the chance for showers and storms could increase Saturday morning to midday if the data continues to offer a faster and not slower solution. Either way the chances would also continue into Sunday.
The pattern should be active again early next week with some additional storm chances and the continuation of not as hot air.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.