The data is now offering some conflicting solutions regarding the exact position of some important features for the approaching storm system. While some specifics regarding the timing-onset and exact location of storms may continue to change over the next 24 hours, the threat of severe storms including heavy rainfall will continue with this system.
A major storm system will be bearing down on the southern plains for the next 36 hours with increasing thunderstorm chances including the threat of severe weather and flooding rainfall. Flooding is possible, across southeastern and east central Oklahoma where 3 to 7 inches of rain may occur. Locally higher amounts will be possible. A flash flood and flood watch will remain in effect from 7 p.m. through Sunday at 7 a.m. Locations along and southeast of Interstate 44 are currently included in the watch. The axis of heaviest rainfall may shift a few counties either north or south during the event depending upon the exact position of a frontal boundary that is expected to remain across the area until late Saturday night.
A few showers and storms are underway this morning with a weak short wave that is brushing far northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. These spotty showers and storms will quickly exit the area during the next hour or so leaving southeast winds and highs in the mid to upper 70s across the area for the afternoon. As the main upper level system draws closer to the state, a surface low pressure center is expected to develop across the northwestern areas of north Texas with a warm front extending approximately from near Ardmore to north of McAlester to Ft. Smith. This boundary may lift more northward later this afternoon but at this point, we’re leaning toward this position of the front for the evening hours. It must be noted that some convective allowing models have the boundary well north by later this evening. This boundary will be critical in determining the possibility of surface based severe storms Friday evening. North of the boundary (areas across northeastern Oklahoma including the Tulsa metro) thunderstorms would be elevated in nature and capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and of course extremely heavy rainfall. If the boundary does indeed move more to the north, the severe weather threats associated with surface based storms would also move northward.
Later tonight into pre-dawn Saturday storms are expected to remain with heavy rainfall across northeastern and east central Oklahoma with severe weather threats continuing across southeastern sections of the state. The main system is not expected to move out of southeastern and far eastern Oklahoma until Saturday evening meaning additional surface based storms are still possible Saturday midday to afternoon across the eastern third of the state. Heavy rainfall may continue post frontal across northeastern and eastern Oklahoma through Saturday night. Sunday the main upper level system is ejecting to the northeast with spotty showers Sunday and blustery conditions. Northwest winds from 15 to near 30 mph will remain with highs in the mid-50s.
Monday appears mild with sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The next front will move across the state either Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week with more storms.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day, but please remain ware of your weather surroundings late tonight through the weekend.