Friday Night Through Saturday Looks Mighty Interesting

Chilly start to our day today as Tulsa officially bottomed out at 39, just a few degrees above the record for this date.  The clouds that quickly returned during the day have kept our daytime highs in the 60s so a much cooler than normal day for us.  Here is the link to the normal and extreme values for Tulsa for this date or any other for that matter.  

Those clouds that moved in today are associated with a disturbance aloft that will be passing over the state during the overnight hours and will also spread some occasional light rain or showers, perhaps even a rumble or two of thunder.  Nothing severe is anticipated as the instability is very limited and the system is relatively weak.  By morning any showers should have moved on east of us leaving partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies for the balance of the day Friday.  However, the S to SE winds and clouds should hold overnight lows in the 50s so a much milder start to our day and with at least some sunshine together with a S/SE wind during the day, that should bring our daytime highs well into the 70s and perhaps even some low 80s.

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After the early morning showers move out, the rest of the day Friday is expected to be dry until late in the afternoon or more likely through the evening and overnight hours.  That is when it starts getting interesting again and the Friday night through the day Saturday and into the morning hours of Sunday could pose some significant problems.  .Notice the good folks at the local NWS office have already issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Green country that will be valid from Friday night through Saturday night.

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This system has the potential to produce some record breaking rainfall amounts for both daily totals and the month of April as a whole.  This next map shows the 3 day QPF which suggests the potential for 5" or more.  Keep in mind, this is an areal average and some locations could receive much more. In fact, some of the raw computer output even suggests double digit rainfall amounts by the time it comes to an end Sunday morning.  In other words, strongly advise being very weather aware as there could easily be some widespread flooding problems. 

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There will also be the potential for some severe storms and this next map is the preliminary storm zone and keep in mind this is very preliminary.  The position of the surface front will be critical in where the most significant severe weather occurs.  Locations south of the front will be warmer and more unstable and all modes of severe weather will be possible.  Locations north of the front will be much cooler which would limit the tornado potential, but damaging winds and hail would still be a threat.  And, as mentioned, all locations have the potential for significant flooding.  The data runs so far today still suggest the surface front will stall out somewhere between I-44 and I-40 for Friday night into the day Saturday.  But, that is certainly subject to change and the position of that boundary will also provide a focus for the heaviest rainfall amounts.  

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Keep in mind, this will be a rather long lived event with heavy showers and storms developing Friday evening/night and continuing off an on through the day Saturday and also Saturday night.  By Sunday morning the main storm system aloft will finally begin to eject out to the NE and we will be on the back side.  That will leave us with some lingering showers or drizzle through the morning hours but the cloudy skies and gusty NW winds will also keep us quite cool as you can see on our forecast page.  

Our skies should finally be clearing by Sunday night leaving us with a sunny but cooler than normal day for Monday.  Another storm system now looks to be headed this way with a chance of showers late in the day Tuesday followed by a better chance of showers or storms on Wednesday and another return to cooler than normal conditions.  

In fact, the 8-14 day outlook continues to keep us in a cooler than normal pattern but at least it also suggests we should have fewer chances of showers/storms so perhaps we will get to dry out at least somewhat.

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot