The front is positioned south of the metro as of this post and will continue to slide southeast with thunderstorms along both sides of the boundary across far southeastern Oklahoma. Despite the early morning period, one or two of the storms may still be severe this morning for a few hours. The front will not clear far southeastern Oklahoma until shortly before noon. Post frontal showers may linger in some locations today through midday along with gusty northwest winds and temps staying in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Later tonight the clouds will thin out with temps dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s. The next short wave will brush the state late Thursday night into Friday morning with some scattered storms a possibility for the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid-70s with a return of south winds and increasing clouds. Another major storm system will be moving into the plains Friday with weather impacts through the weekend including the threat of severe storms for southern-eastern OK and heavy rainfall threats for part of northeastern sections of the state.
The Friday-Saturday system is very much like the past weekend’s system. The front that is moving across the area today will eventually return as a warm front and be critical in determining the better locations for surface based severe storm development. And like last week, the GFS is more northward with the boundary compared to some other data. We have not changed our forecast thinking or positioning of the synoptic details compared to yesterday. This means we anticipate a surface low developing across northwest Texas or southwestern Oklahoma Friday with the front moving from north Texas into southern Oklahoma by the evening hours. Saturday morning this boundary may be located along or south of the I-44 corridor. Storms may attempt to develop Friday across southern Oklahoma and north Texas but a layer of warm air aloft may suppress most activity for most of the day. By the evening hours a powerful upper level system will spread strong lift across the state and storms will develop along the cool side of the front with elevated hailers and heavy rainfall. Storms may eventually develop along the boundary or into the warm sector and become quite strong to severe with all modes of severe weather a possibility.
The active period may last from late Friday night through most of the day Saturday before the surface low rides along the boundary into far northeastern Oklahoma Sunday morning. As the front surges, southeast Sunday, gusty northwest winds and much cooler air will arrive with spotty showers or storms remaining for some locations for a few hours Sunday. Daytime highs this weekend will feature highs in the 60s Saturday across northern OK and into the mid to upper 70s across southeastern sections of the state. Sunday temps will stay in the 50s for the northern third with blustery conditions. At this point Monday appears very nice with a surface ridge of high pressure near the area. The result will be lows near 40 and highs near 70.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!