Keep the Coats Handy for Thursday.

Notice the rainfall totals for today were very generous over the more western counties up to about the I-44 corridor and then dropped off rather dramatically east of there.  The upper level circulation responsible for the widespread rainfall has stalled out at least briefly and kept the better rains to the west.

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Notice also the totals over the last two days and again the more western counties have certainly received the lions share of the moisture from this particular system.  They have been particularly hard hit by the drought and fires so it was certainly welcome except for a few locations where too much fell too fast and created some flooding issues.

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That storm system is now beginning to eject to the E/NE and as it does so another round of showers/storms has formed but those will be confined to areas well east of us for tonight with only a few isolated storms expected.  Meanwhile, the wrap-around moisture on the backside of this system will keep us overcast with some patchy light drizzle or a few light showers into the day Thursday.  Amounts will be very light, but the brisk NW winds and cloudy skies will make for a much cooler day so break out the jackets/coats once again.  Look for morning temperatures to start off in the 40s and daytime temperatures to hold in the 50s.  If we see a few late afternoon breaks in the cloud deck, then some locations may make it into the upper 50s or even near 60, but low-mid 50s look to be the general rule for much of the day.

WARN Interactive Radar

Our skies should be clearing Thursday night and with a light N breeze, Friday morning will be even colder with lower 40s and perhaps even some upper 30s in the cooler valleys of NE OK.  Friday will then have a lot more sunshine and our winds will be more from an easterly component.  Even with the sunshine, that more easterly wind component should keep daytime temperatures generally in the 60s topping out around the 70 degree mark. Saturday will be warmer as our winds return to a southerly direction but clouds will also be on the increase in advance of the next storm system.  At any rate, the increasing cloud cover should hold our daytime highs in the 70s after starting the day in the upper 40s as you can see on our forecast page.

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That will be followed by another good chance of showers and storms by Saturday night.  Right now the timing suggests we should be dry through the day Saturday with the storms arriving during the overnight hours, but that is subject to change.  At any rate, this has the potential to be another wet system for much of the state with showers and possible storms into the day Sunday and perhaps lingering into the morning hours of Monday.  As you can see on the QPF map valid for this weekend, an inch or more of rain certainly looks to be a distinct possibility, particularly over the more eastern counties of the state.  This will be some badly needed rainfall as we largely missed out on the more significant rains further west.  However, that also means there may be a threat of a few severe storms over the course of the weekend.

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The first of next week should then get off to a pretty good start as the next storm system in this recent progression of storm systems now looks to be headed our way by the middle of next week.  However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding its eventual track and the impact it will have on our weather. so will not get too excited about those prospects just yet.

In fact, looking further down the road the 8-14 day guidance continues to trend towards a more stable weather pattern with fewer organized storm systems coming our way and therefore a drier outlook for that time frame.  It also continues our trend of warmer than normal conditions during that time period.  

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot