Much Cooler, Good Chance of Rain Next Few Days.

Although no records were set, this has certainly turned out to be another extremely warm day with widespread 80s for daytime highs.  Here in Tulsa, the max/min has been 84/48 as compared to the normal values of 60/38.

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That is about to change, and in a big way as a cold front is currently moving across the state and will bring much cooler conditions in the days ahead.  The front has also produced some severe storms in Missouri and there remains the potential for some back building tonight as the front surges southward.  That means we could see some storms in NE/E OK over the early night time hours.  Since the front is moving through the Tulsa area as I write, that means any storms will be further to the SE and the metro should remain dry.

By morning, the front will have cleared the state and gusty N/NE winds will make for a much cooler day.  We will start the day in the lower 40s but will pretty much stay in the 50s through the day despite lots of sunshine.

Saturday will be much cooler along with widespread rain and showers and perhaps even a rumble or two of thunder.  A stronger system aloft will be moving across the state and with cool air in place, we will have a very short thermometer.  The cloudy skies and rain will likely keep us in the 40s throughout the day with the rain starting by early morning and tapering off that evening.  From the 3 day QPF, you can see the rainfall amounts have been reduced somewhat, but this looks to be a widespread event and ½” or more should be the general rule for most of Green Country.  Not a drought buster, but still some badly needed rainfall.

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If our skies clear as quickly as now expected, then Sunday morning will likely start off at or below freezing for most locations.  A return to SE winds during the day and mostly sunny skies should bring temperatures back up into the lower 50s, but that is still below normal.  In fact, as you can see on our forecast page, below normal temperatures will be the general rule until the latter part of next week.  Another boundary looks to arrive Sunday night shifting winds back to northerly and keeping some chilly air in place.  That boundary looks to be moisture starved so will only have a slight chance of some light precipitation along and behind the front which may extend into the Tuesday morning time frame.

Depending on how quickly our skies clear, we could again see freezing temperatures for Tuesday morning before things start to warm back up later in the week.  The reason for these cooler temperatures for much of the forecast cycle is due to a change in the wind flow aloft.  Notice the upper level jet stream as depicted at the 500 mb, or 18,000’ level for Tuesday morning.  Instead of the more zonal, or W-E flow that has dominated throughout February, the flow has finally become more amplified bringing a more northerly component across the Central Plains.  That is still not tapping into any arctic air, but will be bringing a rather extended period of below normal temperatures our way for the first time in a long while.

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After that, the long range guidance still suggests the amplified pattern will not last much beyond the coming week and that temperatures will average above normal over the 8-14 day time frame.  Notice there is also at least a chance of scattered showers/storms during that time frame as well.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot