Strong Storms Possible In Green Country Tonight

We’re moving into an active period regarding our weather pattern for the next few weeks. This starts today and tonight with a strong upper level trough that will eject from the inter mountain region into the northern high plains while shoving a surface cold front across northern and eastern OK overnight. This front will attempt to produce a line of thunderstorm activity, some strong to severe, before exiting the state pre-dawn Tuesday. 

This boundary will slide south of the state Tuesday through Wednesday with fine weather across Oklahoma before the front begins migrating northward Thursday as a warm front as the next upper level disturbance approaches the southern plains.  

This boundary will eventually stall near northern OK by the end of the week with storm chances remaining into Saturday. The upper air flow during this period will be a fast zonal regime (west to east) with small disturbances having some impact with storm chances during the period. While the exact outcome from Thursday into early next week remains unclear, it does appear we’ll have storm chances. There are some signals of a surface low developing that will lift eastward out of the state Friday night into Saturday morning before ejecting to the northwest.   

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Before all of this occurs, the front moving across the state tonight will be the focus for storm chances in the short term.

We anticipate temps today will move into the mid or upper 70s along with south winds from 20 to 35 mph and mostly cloudy conditions.   The window for storm development will begin ahead of the front ( in the warm sector) around 5 pm-7 pm tonight with a few isolated super-cells attempting to develop.   By 10 pm to midnight, the front will be moving quickly through northeastern OK with a narrow line of storms developing.  

Storms should form first in southeastern Kansas and back build into the northeastern OK near the metro.   By 1 am-2 am the line of thunderstorm activity will be positioned from southeastern OK into northwestern Arkansas and should be clearing far southeastern OK, from Hugo to Broken Bow, by 3am to 6am.   Locations west of the Tulsa metro may miss out on storms tonight, with locations west of the I-35 corridor remaining dry and into a fire weather issue behind the dry line this afternoon.

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Tuesday morning lows will start in the lower to mid-40s with northwest winds and sunshine by afternoon along with highs in the mid-60s.

Wednesday morning lows near the lower to mid 30s will be followed by highs in the lower 70s along with mostly sunny conditions and winds shifting from the north to the south by midday.   Speeds from 10 to 15 mph will be likely.

Thursday increasing clouds will be possible along with a chance for storms Thursday morning to midday across northern OK as the front begins lifting northward.  Lows in the 40s are likely.  Highs will be in the lower 70s.

Friday morning lows will be in the lower to mid-40s.   Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s with a chance of storms.

Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s.  Highs will be in the lower 70s with a chance of storms.

Sunday the lows will be in the 50s.  Highs will be in the 60s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV