Fog Possible Tonight, Still Very Warm for February.

Picked up some nice rainfall over the last 24 hours as this map of statewide totals indicates, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Still, not a drought breaker but some nice rain nonetheless.  Our soil moisture is in pretty good shape now, but we need some run-off moisture to replenish the lakes, ponds, and streams.

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As you can see on the 7 day QPF, our prospects for any moisture of consequence over the coming 7 days are not very encouraging.  Cannot rule out a few light showers with the next cool front Thursday night and again along about Monday, but those prospects are rather slim.

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Now that today’s showers are moving out, our skies are clearing from W-E as the upper level system that produced the rain moves on eastward.  There is also a surface cool front that will be moving through overnight shifting our winds to the NW and bringing drier air back our way.  But, there is not any cold air for the system to work with so even with the northerly winds, we will still be much warmer than normal for Tuesday.  Also, the drier air will be rather slow to arrive so temperatures by early morning are expected to still be in the 40s which is much above normal.  The only real concern is that with the clear skies and a relatively light wind, there could be some locally dense fog for the morning hours.

After the fog burns off, we will have abundant sunshine through the day and despite those northerly winds afternoon temperatures will make it back into the 70s.  By the way, the normal max/min for this time of year is 55/33, so much above normal temperatures continue to prevail.

And, not only for Tuesday but right on through Wednesday and Thursday as you can see on our forecast page.  Notice that we may even see some 80 degree temperatures before the next cool front arrives Thursday night.  Right now, those numbers are below record levels, but it will be close, particularly on Thursday when the record for the date is 81.  Another factor to be aware of is increasing southerly winds on Wednesday and gusty southerly winds for Thursday.  That means that despite these recent rains, the dormant vegetation will quickly dry out creating an enhanced fire danger situation once again.

The cool front arriving Thursday night will have some cooler air to work with, but only briefly.  It will not have much in the way of moisture to work with so only a few isolated showers are currently anticipated, if that.  However, the cooler & drier air that will arrive during the day Friday should result in temperatures at or below the freezing mark for Saturday morning and perhaps again on Sunday morning.  The longer range guidance is not very consistent beyond that time frame as some of the guidance suggests a stronger system arriving sometime Monday with a chance of showers and other guidance not so much.  For now, will go with just a slight chance of showers and temperatures still running above normal.

In fact, the 8-14 day outlook for that following week continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country although it is also bringing in some cooler air to our west.  We also look to be on the western fringe of any additional showers during that time period.  Bottom line is that this will turn out to be one of the warmest February’s on record.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot