Warm Weekend, Chance of Showers Sunday Night.

Hard to believe this is February.  Temperatures today have been well above normal once again as you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Keep in mind that the normal diurnal temperature range at this time of year is 54/32.  We are more than halfway through the month of February and so far temperatures are running more than 7 degrees above normal here in Tulsa.

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And, as you can see temperatures will be even warmer through the coming 7 day forecast cycle.  That is not to say that we are completely through with any cold, wintry weather as it is not uncommon for our most significant wintry weather to occur in March.  But, the pattern so far this winter and the overall pattern for February certainly suggests that as a general rule, temperatures will likely average above normal right on through Spring.

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In the short term, the clouds that moved in today will be lowering overnight giving us a low stratus deck to start the day Saturday.  Along with that comes the possibility of some drizzle or perhaps a few sprinkles for the overnight hours and into Saturday morning.  We will also have a light SE breeze tonight and through the day Saturday and the end result on temperatures will be for another very mild day.  Morning lows will be around the 50 degree mark but we may get a few breaks in the cloud deck during the afternoon and afternoon highs will be well into the 60s once again.

Mostly cloudy skies will also prevail through Sunday, but a storm system aloft will be heading our way so we will have stronger southerly winds and even warmer temperatures as you can see on our forecast page.  This system will also bring a good chance of showers and perhaps even some thunder for Sunday night ending Monday morning.  Notice on the 3 day QPF that once again we are on the northern fringe of the heavier rainfall.  The main storm center still looks to be well south of us which is why the heavier rains are projected much further south as well.  At least we should get some additional moisture from this system which will be welcome.

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Any lingering showers for Monday morning will be quickly moving on eastward followed by another cold front that should be arriving Thursday night.  That will be accompanied by at least a slight chance of showers and perhaps some thunder but the data at this point does not suggest it will be a particularly good rainmaker.  It will bring about a decent cool-down for a change with temperatures at or perhaps even below normal for a short time for next weekend.

But, the 8-14 day outlook for that following week continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal and there will also be at least another chance or two for some scattered showers and perhaps even some thunder.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot