Cold, Chance of Light Snow.

What a difference a day can make here in OK.  Notice the 24 hour temperature change map across the state as of mid-afternoon, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. 

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That colder air was also brought in by gusty northerly winds which has produced some very cold wind chill values as of late this afternoon, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Although the cold will not be as extreme as what we experienced the week before Christmas, it will be longer lasting.  That event had two days with single digit and even some below zero morning temperatures but only one day in which we failed to get above the freezing mark.

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This time around, we expect the cold air to hang around for a little longer as temperatures will barely get above freezing on Wednesday and will probably not get above freezing for Thursday and Friday as you can see on our forecast page. However, our mornings will not be as extreme with morning lows generally in the teens although wind chill values will likely be in the single digits for a few hours each morning.

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There are several reasons for these changes from the previous event.  For example, the low temperature tonight will be in the upper teens to near 20 but since our skies are not expected to completely clear out and the winds are not going to calm down, it will not be as cold as would otherwise be expected.  However, as mentioned, those wind chill values will likely be in the single digits at times during the morning hours which is still mighty cold.  High level cirrus cloud cover will keep us from having full sun on Wednesday and with a brisk northerly wind all day, look for temperatures to struggle to get above freezing for the urban environment and may not get above freezing for some of the rural locations. 

Thursday and into the day Friday will have some disturbances aloft moving across the state and over the top of the shallow, cold, and dry air that will be in place.  As a result, we will keep cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with overnight lows dropping into the teens and daytime highs generally in the 20s.  Northerly winds will still be rather gusty so wind chill values will likely be in the single digits at times as well.  Not only that, but the systems aloft will try to produce some snow, but the problem is how dry we will be in the lower levels.  There will be sufficient moisture in the snow making layer aloft but, below that the air is very dry which will limit the ability of the snow to reach the ground and accumulate.  Some locations may receive a dusting and a few spots perhaps even ½” or so, but that should be about the extent of it.  Keep in mind, the systems that would cause this are still out in the Pacific as I write, so that is certainly subject to change.

Saturday is expected to have lots more sunshine so after a bitterly cold start, we should at least make it above the freezing mark that afternoon.  By Sunday and going into next week, our winds will be back to a more southerly direction which will result in a warming trend.  In fact, temperatures in the 50s to near 60 are expected by the Mon/Tue time frame of next week. Problem with that will be gusty southerly winds together with the warm, dry conditions and the potential for fire danger issues.  

And, as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook, above normal temperatures should be the general rule through the rest of next week, on average.  Unfortunately, there is still not much of a moisture signal through that time frame.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot