Warm Weekend, Chance Of Showers; Much Colder Next Week

Winds gusting to well over 30 mph today together with relative humidity levels dropping below 20% during the heat of the day contributed to a very high fire danger situation.  Notice the relative humidity values at mid-afternoon today.

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As we go through the night tonight, those southerly winds will remain rather strong but the gust factor will diminish considerably and winds on the order of 10-20 mph or so should be the general rule.  Also, those southerly winds will eventually bring some low level moisture back our way and as temperatures cool, the humidity levels will be rising anyway.  That will reduce the fire danger considerably for the overnight hours as temperatures fall into the upper30s to lower 40s which will be about 10-15 degrees warmer than we were this morning.

Another frontal boundary will be moving across the state Saturday with diminishing southerly winds as the front approaches, then shifting to northerly by mid-day.  The shallow, cool air behind this boundary will likely stall out over the more SE counties, but will result in the warmest part of the day for most locations around the noon hour.  Temperatures for the afternoon will likely hold steady in the low-mid 50s before dropping off quickly that evening/night.  For the New Year’s Eve festivities, temperatures should have dropped into the mid-upper 30s by the midnight hour along with a NE breeze and under partly cloudy skies.

We will have a better chance of showers Sunday night into the day Monday and there may even be a few storms as you can see on our forecast page.  We certainly need the rainfall as we are running more than a foot below our normal rainfall for the year.  As you can see on the chart, not only are we very dry this year in comparison to normal, the comparison is even more dramatic with respect to last year which was the third wettest year on record.  This year, we will have received less than half of the rainfall we had for 2015 so certainly a dramatic change from one year to the next.

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Speaking of dramatic changes, after an extremely warm day on Monday, an arctic front will arrive that night and Tuesday will see much cooler temperatures followed by an extended period of below freezing weather for the rest of the week.  The timing and intensity of the initial surge of cold air on Tuesday is uncertain so look at Tuesday as a transition day with temperatures holding steady at best and perhaps dropping for much of the day.  As mentioned, we will struggle to get above the freezing mark for the rest of the week and with the shallow cold air in place over us, the attention then turns to the upper level wind pattern.

No major storm systems are currently foreseen, but the longer range guidance certainly suggests at least some energy aloft moving over the state which would bring more cloud cover and at least the potential for some wintry weather perhaps as early as Wednesday evening and more likely during the Thu/Fri time frame.  Right now, the guidance suggests light snow or flurries with amounts up to an inch or two at the most.  Of course, that is certainly subject to change as we receive more consistent data closer to the actual event itself.

At any rate, temperatures will stay well below normal through next weekend and for that matter for the first two weeks or so of 2017.  Notice the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures averaging below normal through that time frame.  However, looking at some of the teleconnections associated with even longer range guidance suggests the chilly start to January will be replaced by a warmer period for the last half of the month.  If so, the month as a whole may turn out to be pretty close to normal despite the bitter cold of the coming week or so.  Unfortunately, the outlook is not very promising for much in the way of moisture during that time frame either.

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Also, since we are at the end of 2016, here is a look back at the most significant weather related events of the past year across our state, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.

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Dick Faurot