Very Mild Through New Year's Day, Then It Gets Interesting

The three days surrounding Christmas were certainly quite a contrast to the previous weekend.  In fact, that Sat/Sun/Mon time frame was the third warmest on record which is certainly remarkable considering that the previous weekend temperatures were 50-60 degrees colder.  The mild conditions continued through the day today as you can see on the max/min temperature map across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  After a cold morning start, the sunny skies and a more southerly wind component really helped warm things up.  Here in Tulsa, the max/min so far today has been 56/25 as compared to the normal values of 47/28.

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Wednesday will be even milder as a southerly breeze will continue through the overnight hours keeping us from cooling off as much and morning lows should be in the 30s to low 40s.  Generally fair overnight skies may give way to some early morning cloud cover which is expected to quickly thin out leaving us with lots of afternoon sunshine.  Also, another weak frontal boundary will be pushing across the state with southerly winds shifting back to northerly later in the day.  But, we will still make it into the 60s before the cooler air moves back in that night.  In fact, as you can see on this chart, daytime temperatures look to remain well above normal through the rest of this year and for the first few days of the New Year.

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On our forecast page, you can also see that there is not much in the way of rain anytime soon.  In fact, the 7 day QPF map has most of the state high and dry and what few showers may occur over E OK would be very light, if we see any showers at all. 

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The boundary moving through tomorrow may set off an isolated shower or two for the far SE counties, but the chances are very small even there.  Saturday into the day Sunday will see another weak boundary move across the state, but it does not have much moisture to work with either so only a few very isolated showers may occur; again over the more E/SE counties.  Late Sunday into the day Monday may see a little better chance of rain, but so far the prospects are not overly impressive then either so am only carrying a slight chance of showers for that time frame. 

As mentioned, above normal temperatures will be the general rule through the first of next week; then the bottom drops out.  The wind flow aloft is expected to become more favorable for much colder air to be surging back into much of the country starting on Tuesday of next week and quite likely continuing through the rest of the week. 

Notice the 8-14 day outlook has a strong signal of much below normal temperatures which will be quite a contrast from what we will have leading up to it.  Also, there is the possibility of precipitation during that time frame and the vertical profile of temperature will determine what the type of precipitation will be.  Far too early to be any more specific than that at this time frame; needless to say it could get interesting.

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Of course, at this time of year, conditions can change rather rapidly so in the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot