Coldest Air in Years Heading to Oklahoma

I hope you have your heavy coats handy because we are seeing some seriously frigid air coming our way soon. It will likely make our current cold weather seem like a rather pleasant spring day. We have experienced a few glancing blows of Arctic air, but the center of the cold has remained well to our north across the Upper Midwest so far.  A powerful storm system emerging out West will funnel that air further south… and this air mass has origins all the way in Siberia where a record snowpack has allowed that cold air to be further enhanced.

                Before our weekend Arctic Blast, we still will contend with cold conditions. Wind chill values in the teens at night and 20s in the day will be common Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread clouds sweeping overhead will limit what little warming can occur. By Friday, this shallow, but cold, dense air will finally erode as strong southerly winds force warmer air northward. The warmest point on our day Friday will likely be well after dark as the strong advection of warm air should overcome any usual nighttime cooling. The winds will be fierce, but our temperatures may crest in the 60s ahead of our cold front. However, this will only worsen our weather whiplash.

                Saturday morning is when the temperatures begin their tumble. Strong north winds will bring falling temperatures all day. In fact, by afternoon, we’ll likely see readings below freezing as wind chill values fall into the teens and single digits by evening. The most brutal wind chill values are likely to be experienced Sunday morning when 10 - 20mph winds combine with temperatures around 10° to make it feel like it’s below 0°. This is dangerously cold air to people and pets without proper sheltering so be sure to look out after those more vulnerable. The map below shows you that while it’s frigid in Oklahoma, our friends to the north will be facing some face-numbingly harsh wind chill values. Our actual temperatures may bottom out Monday morning when the winds become light. If there’s any snow on the ground, we could be well down into the single digits.

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Speaking of snow, this system could also be at least a minor problem for travelers as the latest computer model data suggests a band of a wintry mix or light, wind-blown snow developing Saturday afternoon and evening. The moisture appears a bit scant, but the upper-level disturbance would likely be able to squeeze out those snowflakes and bring parts of Green Country our first light accumulation of the season. This aspect of the system is definitely not nailed down. At this point, just be aware that we could see a few slick spots Saturday night. A widespread, heavy snow with major travel issues is not anticipated. The map below shows a more generous computer model output of snow accumulations. It would suggest a dusting to two inches would be possible throughout the area.

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Does this put us in the Deep Freeze until Christmas? Not necessarily. The jet stream pattern is quite progressive and would likely lead to some warming in the following week. Another storm system or two may also sweep by the state between now and then. It’s too early to tell if this would bring a wintry weather potential. At this point, however, those dreaming of a White Christmas won’t be disappointed yet. Tulsa only has a 7% of a true White Christmas on any given year, but the pattern will be active through Christmas weekend. The big question will be temperatures. The jet stream (and polar vortex circulation over Canada) may strengthen by that time and limit how much Arctic air spills back southward. The outlook for the Christmas timeframe below shows more precipitation than usual, but likely a warmer than normal pattern. If anything, this offers hope of warmer days to those dreading the bitterly cold air that is assuredly coming our way.

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