Turning Cooler

Hard to believe December is right around the corner given how mild we were today.  Although these numbers will not go into the record book for today due to the fact we will be cooler by the midnight hour, but as of late this afternoon the max/min has been 64/55 as compared to the normal values of 55/34.  That’s right, we started the day as warm as we would normally expect the daytime high to be.  As mentioned though, we will certainly be much cooler than that before the midnight hour due to drier air and generally fair skies in place.  However, here is how the day went across the rest of the state; again, very mild for this time of year but not record setting.

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The boundary that has brought in the drier air also produced some decent showers and storms over the far SE part of the state as you can see on the 24 hour rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  They certainly needed the moisture but so does the rest of the state due to the warm, mostly dry conditions of the last several months.

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At any rate, we will be cooler tonight with much drier air now in place as you can by the 24 hour change in the dew point temperature.  That drier air will result in a quick cool-down this evening with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s to low 40s by Tuesday morning.  Another boundary will move across the state during the day but will have no moisture to work with so expect lots of sunshine.  Our winds will be from the S/SW for the morning shifting to the NW during the afternoon.  Cooler air will then move in for Wednesday, but Tuesday afternoon will still be very mild with daytime highs in the lower 60s.

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As mentioned, Wednesday will be cooler but actually just closer to our seasonal normal values.  Morning lows in the lower 30s should be the general rule by Wednesday and for the rest of the week along with daytime highs generally in the 50s as you can see on our forecast page.  Mostly sunny skies will be the general rule as well.

That will be changing over the weekend as a more complicated forecast scenario is taking shape starting on Saturday due to a system that is projected to moving into Northern Mexico and either stall out there for a few days or progress on eastward.  The uncertainty is due to which longer range forecast model solution one wants to believe. Not a lot of consistency between the various model suites at this time so will try to split the difference which leads to cooler days due to the cloud cover, but still warm enough that wintry weather does not appear to be a concern.  There also appears to be at least a slight chance of precipitation, and given the temperature profile it all looks to be a light rain.  In fact, the 7 day QPF map certainly has the greatest rainfall potential well south of us.

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However, looking further down the road, the trends are starting to suggest cooler air coming our way although still not too much in the way of badly needed moisture.  Notice the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks which certainly suggest near to perhaps below normal temperatures but not too much in the way of moisture.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot