We’re tracking the potential for a few showers and storms today and this afternoon as a fast moving upper level wave influences part of the area, and a weak surface boundary slides closer to northern OK later today.
Temperatures today will still be above the seasonal average with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. One of two of the storms may produce some small hail or gusty winds. Showers and storms will not impact all areas today.
The upper air flow is quickly bringing a mid-level trough across the central plains today and will exit the area later tonight into Thursday. A few storms will remain possible with southeast surface winds bringing low level moisture back into the area this morning through the day. A few storms have been up and running early this morning across southern Kansas and should continue to move east this morning.
There should be a gradual turn to the southeast soon but most data also support this activity weakening as it moves into northern OK this morning. We’ll need to keep a slight chance for a few storms this morning across part of northern OK.
The weak surface front, still to our northwest this morning, will move closer to northern OK later this afternoon. And a possible outflow boundary may also be ahead of this main front. As this happens, the main forcing will be leaving most of the southern plains. This means there will be a potential for a few storms later this afternoon and evening for this 2nd window of opportunity.
This afternoon window will be from 1pm to 9pm with the main window for the metro around 4pm to 6pm or so. This weak boundary may cross the Tulsa metro later tonight and allow north winds for a few hours Thursday morning but the winds will quickly return from the south Thursday afternoon with temperatures climbing back into the upper 70s and lower 80s by afternoon.
Friday morning temperatures will start in the upper 50s or lower 60s and climb to highs near 86 along with gusty south to southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph. We may see some record highs Friday across part of northeastern OK and southern Kansas.
This weekend most data suggest another surface boundary will near Saturday night into Sunday with no precipitation and very little temperature change. Warm weather will remain. The weekend lows will be in the 50s and 60s. The daytime highs should stay in the lower to mid-80s with mostly sunny conditions. The wind speeds may remain in the 15 to 25 mph range Saturday.
Halloween appears mild with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s.
A stronger looking system will near the state by the middle to end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!