It’s back to late summer today with gusty south winds and highs moving into the mid-80s across eastern OK. A strong front will slide across the state Wednesday bringing a chance for a few showers tomorrow morning across southeastern Kansas and extreme eastern OK and then a slight chance for a storm or two across east-central OK tomorrow afternoon. We’ll cool down Thursday with increasing chances for showers and storms by evening into Friday morning. The weekend appears mostly dry and warm but a few showers may occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Temperatures this morning will start in the mid to upper 50s across most of eastern OK along with mostly clear sky and south breezes. The upper air pattern will quickly bring a mid-level wave across the central U.S. by late afternoon and evening. This disturbance will eject across the central plains Wednesday while helping to shove a surface front southward into our area by noon tomorrow for the metro. Temperatures Wednesday may still reach the upper 70s and lower 80s for some spots before the north winds and cooler air will arrive by afternoon and evening. We think the temps will be dropping to near 60 by 5pm tomorrow evening.
The surface to mid-level parameters do suggest the potential for a few showers or storms along the boundary but the surface convergence along the boundary appears rather weak. Low level moisture will also be marginal for this event, but we’ll keep a rather low chance for a few showers or storms with this front.
The front will clear the area Wednesday night and this will bring cooler air into the state Thursday with highs in the mid-60s along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Another mid-level wave will eject across the central plains Thursday night into Friday and this will bring more rain and storm chances back to the state during this period. The Wednesday front will now begin lifting northward as a warm front into Friday morning. While convective energy is expected to remain low, the surface instabilities will be increasing during this period and thunderstorms will be likely. The wave should exit the state by midday and this will leave Friday night football games void of falling precipitation even trough playing surfaces may still be wet in some locations.
Saturday into Sunday we’ll prepare for yet another wave approaching the state by Sunday morning to afternoon. This may bring a few showers or storms back to the area Sunday night but at this point, we’re keeping the precip chances low until confidence in the model solution increases.
Temperatures this weekend are expected to be above the seasonal average with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Another front will near eastern OK for the middle of next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!