The beautiful fall weather of the weekend has already been replaced by temperatures back near the 80 degree mark today. In fact, the max/min for Tulsa has been 80/56 as compared to the normal values of 75/52. Tuesday will get off to a warmer start despite dew points that are currently in the 40s and fair overnight skies. A steady SE breeze should hold those morning lows well into the 50s and gusty southerly winds along with plenty of sunshine during the day should push our daytime highs into the lower 80s for most folks.
That will be followed by an even warmer start to the day on Wednesday as you can see on our forecast page, but big changes will be arriving as the day wears on. Notice a cool front will be pushing through the state during the afternoon hours followed by much cooler air. In fact, a brisk SW wind ahead of the front will likely push many locations back to near the 80 degree mark before the cooler arrives which right now looks to take place during the early afternoon hours for the Tulsa metro area. Temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s ahead of the front should be dropping into the 60s and perhaps even the upper 50s along with gusty northerly winds behind that cool front. Obviously, the cooler air will be arriving for the more northern counties earlier in the day and for the more southern counties later in the day.
That will be followed by a much cooler day on Thursday with a NE wind and mostly cloudy skies. However, this cool-down will not last as long as what we enjoyed over the weekend. In fact, another system will likely bring the front back over us as a warm front Thursday night followed by a return to southerly winds and another big warm-up for the coming weekend.
The initial passage of the cool front on Wednesday does not look to have much moisture to work with so only a slight chance of showers or thunder late in the day. As the front stalls out along the Red River and then begins to return northward, our rain chances are expected to increase for Thursday night into the morning hours of Friday. As you can see, the rain chances should then be tapering off in time for Friday night football.
Rainfall amounts could turn out to be rather generous as you can see on the 7 day QPF map, particularly over the more southern counties. By the way, another system moving across the state will bring another chance of showers and/or storms for Saturday night, but right now the longer range guidance is not showing much model to model agreement, so will only go with a slight chance for the time being. Subsequent data runs will be carefully evaluated to see if those numbers need to be changed one way or the other.
As mentioned, gusty southerly winds will really warm things up on Tuesday, the shift to northerly winds will cool us off later Wednesday through Thursday, but then gusty southerly winds will really warm things back up for the weekend into early next week.
Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook continues with a strong signal of above normal temperatures through that period. That would most likely translate to daytime highs holding around 80 and overnight lows well into the 50s or perhaps even low 60s. But, the longer range guidance also suggests a possibility of some weak fronts moving through the state during that time frame that will not cool things off much but could bring additional chances of showers or thunder.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.